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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (66179)7/4/1999 12:03:00 AM
From: GST  Respond to of 164684
 
Sarmad -- One last observation: Nets are losing their prized 'postional' status because their supply can be increased through IPOs and new stock issuance -- unlike real estate or the works of dead artists. This is a problem no matter what the credit markets do -- but with all the IPOs it would indeed be 'unfortunate' to have IPOs and tighter credit markets at the same time -- ouch.

For tracking, I find the yen-dollar relationship and 30 year bond yield are simple and suit my purposes -- although money supply is good to be aware of I don't see any need to 'track' it except from time to time. The tug of war going on reflects the uncertainty about the next leg in the bond market -- it has been selling off since the beginning of the year. A peak in the dollar-yen would be a sign of trouble for BOTH Japan and the US. Rising rates in all countries would be another sign of tighter global credit markets -- which is exactly what we saw in Japan last week and could see again this week. For now it is play day for the bulls doing the earnings season dance. A persistent bond at or above 6% spells trouble later in July.