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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (6558)	7/4/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 15132

RE: Kirk<<<<<Could we be getting over diligent?>>>> Marc: <I think this return to neutral bias may in hindsight have turned out be a great gift to those who saw it as an incredible opportunity to get out at the top. > This may prove to be a real value of the net as Bob can and does read these boards and can sense when others are over reacting and then adjust what he says to pull them in. I do worry that some place far too much confidence in Bob, however deserving, and not in their own convictions. What will they do after Bob retires? Go back to money funds for investments? <g> re: <To my understanding the Fed's liquidity tightening will only be a negative for the market especially at these levels. Yes earnings are supposed to be great but it seems everybody and their grandmother are saying that so I wonder if this move up is largely a rush to get in ahead of anticipated great earnings. If true it may be hard for earnings to help the market.> Agreed. I firmly believe we will get great earnings, and that many stocks will correct on this news anyway. It is often the case when stocks get ahead of themselves that they correct for no other reason than the news just can't get any better so many find it time to take profits. It sort of reminds me of a feeding or gorging frenzy where the participants "lose" their meals after... Justa has discussed a strategy for the semicaps and AMAT's earnings where I believe we will see this happen in spades. I might even abandon my mostly "buy and die" strategy and try a bit of timing with a small portion of my portfolio in that sector. I also know that many didn't agree with me Message 10147396 that you have get health restored by correcting the sectors that were too expensive, Message 10148408 but it sure seems that this is the case. Even Bob last weekend sounded more bullish than he has in weeks. Health care stocks are still way down as are internet stocks. This seems healthy to me. Many high tech stocks are richly valued, but it is only a very few quality ones like Msft and CSCO that seem to had survived with high multiples and they are probably deserved on their fundamentals, market position and market outlook. Time will tell... but it does seem like fundamentals are catching up some and there is still plenty of time for a summer/fall/Y2K correction. The question is will we go to 12000 before or after we see a good correction? I think before, but don't plan to make any timing bets on it. happy July 4th! Kirk out PS You have so many good posts on this board that I am surprised that Lars and Justa haven't offered to put your name on the door with theirs! <g>

To: marc ultra who wrote (6558)	7/6/1999 2:03:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: Re: "Yes earnings are supposed to be great but it seems everybody and their grandmother are saying that so I wonder if this move up is largely a rush to get in ahead of anticipated great earnings. If true it may be hard for earnings to help the market." Watch Yahoo's direction after they post earnings. Yahoo has a history of selling off even if they exceed expectations. If this is so again, the tone will be set for that sector at least.