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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (7655)	7/4/1999 12:30:00 AM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78763

James, here is the Southern Energy reference: biz.yahoo.com I do not care if there is a major recession in manufactured housing as in ag. A 50% miss might as well be one. In my opinion, if ALMOST ALL these companies miss, ALL will be taken out and shot to a greater or lesser degree. I still think it is an interesting industry to watch.

To: James Clarke who wrote (7655)	7/4/1999 3:17:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78763

this weeds out much of what you're finding - cyclical companies that have had a great five year run but which got murdered in the last recession Huh? That isn't what the screen found. JLG and CXP I'll give you. They're definitely cyclical. NVH and MAIR maybe, but there's definitely a big growth component as well. Tidewater is going through its own recession and is still profitable. Fair Isaac is as consistent as they come and one might argue that a recession with increased credit risks could help them. The others are hardly big cyclicals. I find software and consultying cos punished because of the Y2K lull, clothing, a new industry in PPD, a lottery company, and health supplement concerns. Maybe you saw a few cos and made a quick judgement. But this screen did not produce a list loaded with cyclicals. If it did, I wouldn't feel the need to post it or publish it. BTW, you're an institution. Read my disclaimer. I give that you have greater screening capacity than me. I don't have easy or free access to quality 10 year or 20 year databases. I might use them if I did. Hon and Herman Miller aren't cyclical? Somebody'd have to convince me. Payless may be good in a recession, but it doesn't look like they're doing so well in a boom time. Lancaster fails my growth tests otherwise it'd be on there. Mike