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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (19362)	7/4/1999 1:46:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

Thank you and I would like to echo the wish for a happy fourth to yourself and all the regular contributors to this thread and the MDA Website. On a more somber note, Louis Ruhkeyser will be on vacation this week. Are we being too bullish here in the face of the Lou vacation factor, low VIX, high call to put ratio and high short term indicator readings? I also want to point out my TRIN Chart shows a turn definitely coming in the next few sessions although like Don's signals it doesn't forecast extent, just that the TRIN will head up thus the market should drop. While most of us see this as only a small drop, who knows? Also to the poster attempting to slam Vitas and a few other posters here, I don't see why you are already so sure the INX is going to new highs. With this index and most of the net stocks not even retracing half of their losses yet, this pop could prove to be nothing more than a fib retrace of the recent drop while the same could be said of the drop from the highs. My forks at the MDA site clearly show that the INX should head up to at least the 625 area before any real test will occur and the previous high at 727. Getting wildly bullish at this stage is a silly action only done by the fools that you talk about people reading. Even those that share the same views must be separated into those that reach a conclusion by guessing and those for a well thought out process with reasoning and an admission that they might be wrong and a plan to exit that strategy if they are proven wrong. The SI threads are full of those that post wild exuberance and rah rah their picks as they drop instead of switching sides and profiting from admitting they were wrong and learning why. Note LG and I did not see the DOW wedge/triangle the same. He was proved right and I was proved blind. (by the way, great call LG !!!) We need to keep open minds and switch sides at a moments notice in this market. Note that the major indexes are at new highs and how many of the large caps are at new highs. Out of those 100 or so new highs, how many do you own right now??? What was the percentage gain of your picks last week? Before gloating on this thread and trashing those that have more good calls here than can be counted, I suggest you wait for the INX to make a new high in a reasonable amount of time to where you are ahead of those that heeded the advice to pull out of that sector and move into more profitable sectors and are making good money right now. We all error but it is the track record of the cumulative that counts. When you build up the track record of Don, LG, Vitas, Pat, Bobby, Gersh, Haim, Heinz, Dennis, GZ, Frank and the other regular posters assembled here, by then you will already not be gloating trying to prove something and will be welcomed as a contributor to the thought processes and analysis that is done here. Good Luck to all and happy Fourth, Lee