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Technology Stocks : METRICOM - Wireless Data Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chun Chang who wrote (1138)	7/4/1999 11:21:00 AM
From: AJ Berger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3376

Welcome back to SI I'm just curious what build you work in. I assume you are using MCOM in Seattle. in all honesty, Ricochet yeilds mixed reviews. I am please to hear you feel it's performance is consistanctly good over the past 2 year period. I confess I only know of it's build status, and have no first hand experience with it's use. I have worked with Cellular Modems, and would candidly state that they are a pathetic attempt at wireless internet. Other Musings to discuss: Any alternative that MCOM contributes before the Cell Phone companies have any chance of upgrading, would be welcome. MCOM shareholders have little to worry about, as such a rebuild is years away, however, I am concerned that the bullish sentiment far outstrips MCOM's cashflow capabilities for years to come. This is after all, an infrustructure building company. These companies valuations are subjet to a cost/value per subscriber. Using CableTV or ISP's as a model, you can use a $2,000-$3,000 value per potential customer over a 3-5 year period. There is no doubt that some analyst will eventually use such models to put targets on MCOM's market cap. While the hope is that WCOM's investment in MCOM will bring far more potential customers far faster to MCOM to absorb the $10x60mil-shares this deal will cost MCOM. While we here may rejoice at it's head start and industry recognition, it is always vulnerable to be upseated by some future technological developement that few here can yet anticipate. I say this because of my experience with CDRD. It is my firm belief the MCOM'like systems will unseat CDRD's system by the time CDRD matures and is available to consumers. I would be naive to think the same could not happen here. Given this insight, I would suggest new investors to this stock judge this as a current momentum play, and not an investment at these prices. WCOM after all was only paying $10 for their shares over the long term, so why would you want to hold $30 shares long term? Given the current bullish market sentiment going into earnings season, we may continue to see dramatic appreciation, but this may only be a game for daytraders until the daily volume on this stock calms down. I would suggest staying long at least until any thread short sentiment grows into a chorus, as that would give us the last upward thrust we would need to get out with a handsome profit. Then we can always re-establish a position in this stock a few months from now, and a few dozen points cheaper, as the market inevitably will correct by year end. So I'm holding till the rhetoric heats up and the volume dies down.