To: Sector Investor who wrote (14274 ) 7/5/1999 2:22:00 AM From: akmike Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42804
Sector-my point about JNPR and the other "hot" ipo's from our industry was not just that we didn't (most of us didn't) see the fundamental progress that MRV would make but we also could not imagine how the market would capitalize the potential of some of these other start-ups so that this humongous value gulf would materialize right before our eyes. It is mind-boggling to me that Juniper has a market cap of 7.35 Billion or some 18 times that of MRV. I mean we are talking about a company with a handful of customers that has never made a profit, that has one product with some 10,000,000 in revenues last quarter in a market segment that accounted for all of 169 million in 1998 total. Granted they have a technological pedigree (even if the guru of their code left the company a few days before the ipo) and well-connected investment bankers. I agree with Stu's premise that JNPR is so over-valued that comparisons with the real world are meaningless and I am not using the JNPR valuation to justify anyone else's value; my point is that the potential for success in this industry is worth much more in the marketplace than we would have dreamed of just a few months ago. Therefore, if the perception changes on MRV to the positive, then our reward will be geometrically greater. So MRV is a better risk/reward at 13+ than it was a few months ago at 6+. This doesn't mean I will get a better return on the stock I buy at 13.25 than the stock I bought at 6.25. It does indicate, however, that small companies with growth prospects in the networking industry are worth a lot more today than a few months ago. (much in the same way that Amazon's incredible valuation bootstrapped dozens of internuts) As more and more investors become convinced of MRV's fundamental prospects,the more and more compelling comparative valuations will become. Noam has exerted much effort over the past quarter to position MRV as the "pure play" networking enterprise. I was originally attracted to MRV because of their growth record and fiber optics expertise. I believe that the integrated approach from the company (and the apparent lack of focus attendant thereto for such a tiny enterprise) is one of the major problems with the street. If we had a "perceived" focus in any one of a half-dozen areas we would have a much higher cap, as it is, even our staunchest supporters must wonder if we can stay the course. The risks are great-more so than when I first purchased shares,but the rewards are many times what I thought then. It appears that wireless has a much more assured future today vs. a short time ago. Isn't MRV situated to profit immensely should wireless begin to realize on its potential? If Noam is right and we are the "pure play networker" then how high is up? Best regards, Mike