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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (25475)	7/4/1999 12:31:00 PM
From: Stormweaver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

tech, I see SUNW as a short candidate too. The only thing holding me back is that they are getting new business from former HP/AIX shops right now and the internet as they are perceived as the iron choice there. It's hard to estimate if they can sustain their current growth rates based on that alone since they are not generating revenue from Java, are losing the workstation market to MSFT/INTC, and will be facing stiff performance/price competition for 4-8 way boxes now that INTC Profusion is out; INTC + NT + SQL Server have the best price/transaction for TPC-C on 4 way iron: tpc.org Also Y2K is approaching and many IT budgets will be frozen for new server iron. Re McNealy... McNeally and the anti-MSFT consortium can't put something better together than CDE (Crap Desktop Environment) and they know that more robust MSFT/INTC n-way configs are in the pipeline. SUNW is more afraid since iron is their only real commodity and with INTC in the picture they can kiss their high margins on 4-8 way goodbye.

To: t2 who wrote (25475)	7/4/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: PMS Witch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Anyone have any comments on my future trading(short) choices. I don't know your time horizon, but, as I see it, Oracle and Sun are facing some serious challenges going forward. O&S both produce high end stuff. Microsoft caters to the masses. The challenge comes from Microsoft's constantly improving their product, and these improved products constantly approaching the utility of O&S products. I don't see O&S products improving anywhere near the rate of Microsoft's. Couple this with the very slow rise of Microsoft's prices and the cost/benefit gap between O&S and M's products appears to be closing fast. The big question is when will this play out. If you look at some earlier Microsoft meals such as Apple and Lotus, dinner took years. Money could have been made in these stocks by nimble traders, but the long-term guys would have been better off placing their bets with the predators instead of the prey. I don't think things will play out fast enough for puts. Shorting could be profitable if you have lots of courage, patience, and money. A conservative chicken would simply avoid the walking dead companies and put their resources behind proven winners. In my opinion, Microsoft has begun a run to $110 and will not be taking much rest until it arrives. After that, I expect to see it take a pause. Cheers, PW.