Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John F. Dowd who wrote (84913)	7/4/1999 5:06:00 PM
From: Barry Grossman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

John, PC sales will parallel car or TV sales I've pointed to this before but there may be many who have never seen this. Two years ago, Forbes published their 80th anniversary edition which was entitled “Silicon Wealth Explosion – Who reaps the next trillion dollars?”. In this totally fascinating issue was this very interesting chart: forbes.com which shows the percentage of ownership of various technologies from the year of their invention – in essence their rate of adoption. Two years later, PC ownership has moved from 40% 22 years since it's invention, to 50% in year 24. TV seems to have reached the 50% point in year 28, radio in 31, electricity in 55, telephone in 75, airplane in 75, and automobile in 83. The newest technologies were cell phones and the internet and they hadn't yet reached 50% in 1997. Are we there yet? Soon, if not already. Here's the article, but I recommend reading the whole issue: forbes.com Barry ------------------ PUSHING PCs and cell phones have spread faster than their forerunners, radios and telephones. That's because technology creates demand for more technology. The silent boom By Peter Brimelow A FUNNY thing has happened to the human race in the last hundred years or so. Ways of living and working that had not changed for millennia have altered abruptly. Reason: We caught a wave of new technology. The momentum is not going to slow. Judging from calculations by Dallas Federal Reserve Bank economist W. Michael Cox, displayed in the chart, technology seems likely to continue altering our lives ever more abruptly. It took more than a century for the telephone to reach its present 94% household penetration. (Note the Depression-era stall.) By contrast, more recent inventions, like television and radio, reached similar penetration levels in only three or four decades. And the most recent inventions of all—cell phones, personal computers, the Internet—are moving even faster. Not all technologies are equal. Some, like electricity, have pervasive consequences by virtue of making so many other inventions practical. The modern equivalent of electricity, says Cox: the microprocessor, invented in 1971. This made possible not only the recent explosive takeoff of cell phones and personal computers but also the sudden sharp increases in penetration visible (see chart) for older inventions like microwave ovens and VCRs. Another factor in some sudden increases in penetration: what Cox calls "network externalities." Until the number of people using a new technology reaches a critical mass, there are few real advantages to users. Your telephone would be useless if you were the only person who owned one. The Internet, television and radio would be useless without content, automobiles close to useless without paved roads and a network of gasoline stations. But good content and highways don't occur until a lot of customers are ready to use them. By contrast, some inventions, like microwave ovens, benefit the individuals using them more or less independently of anyone else. Technologies can be complementary rather than competitive. Radio was rapidly overhauled by television, but it has continued to grow and its penetration is now equal to that of television. Similarly, Cox speculates that tree-based print journalism will complement Internet electronic publishing. Whoopee! Ultimate message of the chart: The modern economy is changing in profound ways that cannot be picked up in GDP numbers. The pocket calculator, more powerful than a $750,000 room-size mainframe computer of the 1950s, did not show up in the consumer price statistics until 1978, after its price had fallen well below $100. And the problem is not just price. "Statisticians keep track of cost," says Cox. "The economy produces worth—what people want." His term for the resulting unmeasured but desirable benefits like greater convenience, choice, safety, speed: "the silent boom." It rolls on.