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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: StockOperator who wrote (19388)7/5/1999 9:54:00 AM
From: Dragon 1  Respond to of 99985
 
Thanks for the advice. As always, my hat's off to you, sir.



To: StockOperator who wrote (19388)7/28/1999 11:01:00 PM
From: StockOperator  Respond to of 99985
 
I hope everyone has been well. I've been traveling lately and haven't had the time to post but with the markets at such a critical place its seems like a good time to add my two cents worth. First of all I would like to say that it was hard to believe that Larry Williams has made such a dramatic shift in his opinions regarding TA. If those comments posted earlier today are indeed true they speak volumes for every book or seminar that Larry has par taken in over the years. Plus it completely opens for debate just how LUCKY he was during his earlier years when his reputation was being made. The technical methods that turned 10,000 into a cool million years ago SHOULD AND STILL DO apply today. Perhaps what he is saying is that his success from earlier on was due to his rather large cajones (at the time) as well a 12 month streak that most traders would die for. Either way his comments are very enlightening and says a lot about his understanding (lack of) of price behavior. The sad thing about his admissions is that there will be plenty of people swayed away from TA because of them. Plus all the random walkers will now seem somewhat vindicated by his reversal. I hate to be rambling on about this subject after not posting for a couple of weeks but as someone that has traded (successfully) STRICTLY off the charts for many years, and thats NOT TO INCLUDE LEVEL 2, this subject strikes a chord in me. As far as I'm concerned TA is the single best tool available when competing with the smartest minds and deepest pockets on Wallstreet.

In regards to our current market environment I believe we are poised to head higher. When looking at the generals and indexes I believe prices have been pushed downward to a levels that have given the appearance of a potential breakdown in prices. The NUTZ are a perfect example. The washout has indeed been swift in some stocks. However, take a closer look at stocks like CSCO, MSFT, DELL, IBM and then also take a look at the recent action in the RUT, S&P and NAZ. There has been a lot of bottoming action the past couple of days and some of the stocks have actually started their breakout moves, DELL is a good example. Stocks like DELL and INTC are JUST NOW beginning to break out of patterns that have been established for months.

I am watching the next two days carefully to see if many of these tech stocks, including the nutz, can add to their gains. Friday is the end of the month and where prices end will be very critical when considering closing monthly prices are pretty much unchanged from this month to last. I fully expect prices to head higher the next couple of months after which I believe we will be setting ourselves up for a violent move in prices, which will most likely be blamed on Y2k or perhaps China playing the currency card. Putting a label on the reason for pushing prices downward really doesn't matter now. When the time comes the media will once again do a masterful job at reinforcing whatever it may be. Until then I believe the place to be is long the market. Unlike Larry I will be watching the charts to see how we finish out the month.

Profitable trading.

SO