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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (7667)	7/5/1999 2:53:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78776

It appears though that the market is indeed withholding the most severe punishment from the larger, more geographically diversified players. Mike

To: jeffbas who wrote (7667)	7/7/1999 1:52:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78776

Jeff: Manufactured Housing...stocks sensitive to hints of bad news. Scuttlebutt in the industry has been that when the economy catches cold this group catches pneumonia. This exacerbates negative reactions. The industry has a few big players, some of whom, like Fleetwood, according to Jim, aren't renowned as the best managed, and a slew of smaller relatively unsophisticated players [Most are private]. This structure and a dip from peak demand can lead to inventory overshoot which takes a bit to be corrected even if the demand dip is temporary. Financing may also play into the demand situation. I recall Greentree got caught playing Fun With Numbers and they were major credit supplier. A somewhat more cautious lending community could curtail sales. Bottom line: This is not a bad time to start phasing in on dips for a patient investor willing to ride out a series of "buying opportunities" down the road, but if you think this is the bottom and an upturn is just ahead you may be disappointed.