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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hoatzin who wrote (1635)	7/5/1999 6:46:00 PM
From: Stephen O	Respond to of 3543

I picked 26th April as the top. I've just looked at the numbers and that was the last up day. Every day since they have been in negative territory. I think that I should get an honourable mention even if I didn't get the 40% in 8 days.

To: Hoatzin who wrote (1635)	7/5/1999 11:46:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Kevin, cool site, anyway you could produce a tulipmania 5 chart back to the september lows. thanks, bb

To: Hoatzin who wrote (1635)	7/9/1999 11:31:00 PM
From: Leeza Rodriguez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Kevin, Nice site--thanks for providing and upkeeping the data on the price fluctuations. Question for you about the historical accuracy of the 'end of the tulip craze'. The info presented at your site states ... "The bottom fell out of the market during 1637, when a gathering of bulb merchants could not get the usual inflated prices for their bulbs. Word quickly spread, and the market crashed.' There is definitely another version of the story. I heard a radio broadcast (NPR?) several months ago of a well credentialed historian who researched the mania. She stated that 'the end' occured WHEN the government intervened at a certain auction and declared the price of ALL tulips= a fraction of their asking price. I have not been able to confirm this, but in any event , I feel the crash in valuations of Internet stocks will come WHEN the government intervenes. That will either manifest itself in the form of : taxes on Internet Sales or local access fees to ISP's. The Internet is creating an efficiency revolution in the Supply Chain . Those efficiencies will begin to show up in the SGA line item of financial balance sheets over the next few years. In other words, after the eInfrastructure is completely built out , large corporations will realize more bottom line EPS profits because a lot of the Sales (S) , General (G) and (A) administrative will be wrung out as a result of the new highly efficient supply chain engine. IMO, this is what the tape is reading. Internet Valuations will not come down to more realistic levels until Internet access becomes more expensive or sales tax is levied. Since the price of bandwidth (optics) and MIPS (speed of your processor) is on a logrythmic DOWNWARD path (way cheaper!), the only way internet access becomes more expensive is if the FCC comes in and messes with the local access fees to the ISPs. Likewise, when the 3 year moratorium on taxes expires.,,,,buy some puts. Until then, enjoy the ride....unless of course the power grid goes down at the stoke of midnight. Leeza Rodriguez