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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (327)	7/5/1999 7:37:00 PM
From: JLIHAI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

"UDER" sounds like a good idea. Yahoo's pattern of beating the estimate and then selling off is pretty regular. That may be an oversimplification. If memory serves I think it was a projected revenue growth slowdown which maxed out Yahoo last time. It's quite possible the NASDAQ will find some reason to pause. I like the earnings prospects of the semiconductors, but so much optimism is already factored into those stocks. There was some mention a few weeks back that AOL might come in on the low end of new subscriber growth. I don't expect INTC's numbers to impress. I think they gave a minor warning also. IBM has been the catalyst for rallies later into the peak earnings month for the past two quarters I believe. It will take a little time probably for the increase in oil prices to translate into favorable year-over-year revenue and earnings comparisons for most oil stocks, (another quarter or so) and even longer for those companies heavily dependent on exploration. JMO JL

To: J.T. who wrote (327)	7/7/1999 11:43:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Now we commence the tale of the tape: "UDER INDEX" (Unscientific Data Earnings Report) I am going to report on the "Bigs" as this will be considered a subjective call on my part as to which stock fits this criteria. This is the litmus test from MITA 327: <...I think I am going to create an "unscientific data estimate report (UDER INDEX)" on the bigs reporting; 1) first if the "big" rallies prior two days (or prior week) going into the report; 2)second if they beat first call estimate or fall short; 3) third, if I can get access to the "whisper #", did the "big" beat this "insider #"; and 4)lastly did the stock rally on the report or sell off after the news came out as measured : A)first call estimate and B)Whisper #. The old prevalent adage buy the rumor, sell the news. Let the earnings show begin.> The purpose of UDER Index is to determine if positive earnings surprises will propel the market higher to another leg up in this longest bull market ever, or are the players buying the rumor of positive expectations (say in the prior few trading days to earnings report) and selling into the news (after the stock moves higher).And furthermore, is this leading to distribution of shares prior to a reversal of fortune and major market trend change. Warren Buffet, not your typical average billionaire, has given us many analogies of what is to come, just like the thief in the night. Best, J.T.