To: Ahda who wrote (36554 ) 7/5/1999 5:22:00 PM From: Alex Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116759
INTERVIEW-UK gold sale no disaster for best shares By Patrick Chalmers LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) - Britain's reserve sales programme need not be a disaster for gold shares, the best of which have weathered the 10 percent spot metal price fall since auctions were announced in May, a leading bullion broker said on Monday. ''Gold sales have historically acted as a stimulus to the market. These sales could prove to be successful for the investor and less successful for the British government,'' Tony Mahalski, Director of International Sales for SG Securities (London) Ltd told Reuters in an interview. Britain is due to sell 25 tonnes of gold on Tuesday, the first of five auctions slated through to March in a programme to cut reserves from 715 tonnes to 300 tonnes in the coming years. Gold equity indices in North America (^XAU - news)(^TGL - news), South Africa (^JGOL - news) and Australia have risen several percentage points in recent days, turning round from late June lows hit as spot prices bottomed near $260.00 following Britain's sales announcement. ''Gold and gold shares are unquestionably for trading. To that extent, whereas the gold price has gone down this year, some shares have done well,'' he said, naming South African miners Western Areas and Harmony Gold Mining Company as examples. The 55-year-old Mahalski, who has worked in the bullion business for 35 years, said forward hedging had protected miners for now but added that sustained low prices would close some. ''Forward transactions will certainly unwind over the next 18 months or two years. There has got to be further rationalisation,'' he said. ''When mines do close down in any meaningful numbers then the price will increase. I do not think central bank sales will account for any major closures,'' he said. ''Those mines that survive will have great margins in the fullness of time.'' Gold equities have taken a battering in recent years while many other sectors, in addition to the stellar internet and telecommunications stocks, have boomed. ''There's a significant decline in interest in investing in gold mines and in funding mines both in primary and secondary markets,'' Mahalski said. ''The cycle's more or less bottomed out,'' he said, adding that gold's glory days of the 1970s and early 1980s were past. ''I don't think we are going to see those halcyon days again,'' he said in reference to the time after removal of central bank gold price controls, galloping inflation and oil prices, which drove gold to fix at an $850 peak in 1980. Miners' willingness to buy proven capacity at valuations per ounce exceeding the market's showed long-term confidence even though they were reluctant to fund exploration of their own. ''Corporate activity this year has recognised that this asset class might be damaged goods in the stock market but it's not to them,'' Mahalski said. Canada's two biggest gold producers, Barrick Gold Corp. (Toronto:ABX.TO - news). and Placer Dome Inc. (Toronto:PDG.TO - news), recently paid almost $1.7 billion for part or total control of gold mines in the United States, South Africa and Tanzania. ''This year's corporate activity shows companies taking a view over 15 or 20 years, which is very different to the share market's,'' he said. And so is Mahalski, who has showed his faith in the 24-carat metal by paying several thousand pounds for the UK vehicle registration plate ''24 AU'' to put on his Japanese-made Datsun.biz.yahoo.com