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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ekn who wrote (40159)	7/5/1999 7:15:00 PM
From: jhnewman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 122087

EKN: YOUR ARGUMENT IS FUNDAMENTALLY FLAWED... You state: "In order for [WAVX] to be successful, it has to deploy a critical mass of "flawless" chips in a limited timeframe." Says who? These are false assumptions that YOU are setting up so that you can make your bogus argument against Wave. 1. Wave doesn't have to deploy a critical mass all at once to make revenues. Wave just started getting its chips into the marketplace about 6 weeks ago...and has just started getting its first real revenues from them. As more and more chips get into the marketplace...Wave will be receiving more and more revenue. It's not necessary for Wave to get 1 million or 5 million or 10 million chips into the market place before it makes ANY revenues. Revenues have already started and will continue to grow as the number of chips grow. 2. The limited timeframe: why is there a limited timeframe? There isn't. As you know, Wave has the only hardware (v. software) technology that will solve many of the problems that affect ecommerce. (Wave just bought the only other company that had any HARDWARE technology...N ABLE). So we are the first to market with an advanced technology and processes to solve some major e-commerce problems. We have started to grab market share in this new "digital metering" market sector...and will continue to do so as we get more and more chips out there. We will also be grabbing marketshare in the established e-commerce security sector. If another company comes along at some point to start competing with WAVX in the digital metering sector...then we compete. WAVX will still have a chunk of this market...and its stock price will still be higher than it is today. So where is the limited timetable...the limited window of opportunity that you and others talk about? There is no limited timetable. We are way out in front (as you know). 3. You and others also argue that WAVX won't have ANY revenues until there is a large system of chips out there...because consumers won't buy, rent or rent to own digitized movies, music, video games, print material, and other stuff through a WAVX chip until there are millions and millions of chips out there. Another bogus assumption. A number of content providers have already signed up with WAVX now, AT THE BEGINNING OF DEPLOYMENT...and many more are following. If a consumer has the WAVX capability, and wants to buy a movie he wants, he's not going to say "Naw, I won't do it...because there aren't enough Wave chips out there." As an example of your bogus assumption...VHS videotapes were a new distribution method for movies. Do you think consumers wouldn't buy a movie on VHS until there were 5 million VHS tapes out there? No. As we all know, the early adopters start buying right away...then more and more people...and so on. 4. Another bogus assumption that you set up is that the chips and the system have to work "flawlessly"...or its doomsday for WAVX. There could be some problems. But have you ever heard of AOL and the problems it had back in 96 or 97...or E-TRADE and other online brokers and the problems they've had recently? These problems can have a short term effect on the price of a stock...but they don't NECESSARILY lead to doomsday for a company...as AOL, E-TRADE and others have proved. So, Eric Naarden, I'm not saying there aren't any risks for WAVX...we all know there are. BUT YOU EXAGGERATE THEM WAY OUT OF PROPORTION WITH THE FALSE ASSUMPTIONS THAT YOU DELIBERATELY BUILD YOUR ARGUMENT ON. In short, ERIC...Wave doesn't face an all or nothing future. There are lots of degrees of success...and revenues and profits...along the way. And those degrees along the way will support a stock price that is higher than the price is now. So it's not really a question of whether WAVX will be successful...it's a question of how successful WAVX will be. Newman. P.S. If you need another explanation with a bit more "overview context"...please see my post #40152 on this thread.