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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: voop who wrote (5713)	7/5/1999 9:56:00 PM
From: Stu Bishop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

To all WIND posters, I'm wondering if there's been any more bad news or hints of bad news since April. Can those of you who've been following the stock for a while give an assessment of whether this company is OK. I know, do the DD. I am, and I haven't found that much that's bad. I'm researching WIND with an interest in buying shares very soon. In order to understand what's happened to bring this stock down so far, I began reading this thread from the posts of Jan 21 PM. I've got to tell you it was pretty funny reading the Jan 21 entries predicting the imminent breakout to new highs, and then seeing the next few portraying shock and disbelief. The best ones were the "is this the stock split?", followed by "c'mon, stocks don't split at 1:00 in the afternoon". Sorry, I couldn't help it. Believe me, I've had similar experiences. The fact the stock fell for so long has me concerned. Often times when this happens, there are problems that the public hasn't found out about yet. I've seen this sort of thing before. Take MRVC for example. The stock topped out just under $40 in Oct 97, then it drifted slowly down to about $20 in Aug 98. To my recollection, there was no bad (public) news during the 10 months it was falling. Then in August they came out with the news they were slow getting their next generation of technology to the market. They said there would be a few rough quarters ahead, but that the long term outlook for the company was still great. Needless to say the stock fell off the proverbial cliff to around $6. Of course I added shares at bargain prices. What's puzzling about WIND is that so far, I've seen no news to justify the stock falling more than 50%. On January 22, the stock fell 1/3 of it's value due to an analyst being misinterpreted. When they reported earnings in Feb, they beat the estimate by a penny. Still the stock continued to fall. Then on April 7, they said $2-3M of revenue would slip to the next quarter. That's less than 10% of revs for that quarter. On April 22, the CEO announced he was stepping down, because "the company needs a more internet-savvy leader". Even if there is no more bad news, the stock is in bad shape on a technical basis (TA). The 200 day moving average is still over $23, or $7.50 higher than the stock. When MRVC dropped so hard in August, it didn't break above the 200 DMA for 8 months. Although WIND has risen off its low, and in fact rallied to $22 in May, it has been drifting down since late May. HOWEVER, if we think it's a good investment, d@^# the TA. If we're patient, and if everything is ok with the company, the stock will eventually come back. I'm just trying to be thorough. I don't want to buy just in time for the other shoe to drop, and see the stock fall to $5. I'm reading everything I can find starting in Jan. I'm up to late April now -- just found out about the CEO quitting. I want this to be more like ASDV than MRVC. I bought MRVC at $27 in mid 97, watched it go to $40, watched it drift to $20, watched it crash, loaded up at the fire sale, and now almost 2 years later I'm profitable. With ASDV, I bought it at the fire sale in April, and I'm up 200%. Thanks in advance for any advice. Best of luck, Stu