To: marginmike who wrote (34059 ) 7/6/1999 5:59:00 PM From: Jim Willie CB Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
<<I think 110 pts on Nasdaq is only a 5% upside with a 20-30% downside going into the fall.>> MMike, at least I took a stab at interest rates... I did call 6.15% as the latest top on rates, and IT HAS HELD... you remember the first erroneous call, but forget the second (so far) correct call... I dont seem to be to be able to find your predictions of rates !!! been checking for hours <g> with no additional Fed hikes in interest rates, and with all the Y2K investments, and with all the Y2K inventory "fill it to the brim" stockpiling, the stock market is heading to new highs by year's end... this is gonna be one of the wildest years in history... even the Fed has remarked that inventory buildup is larger than ever before I expect a contraction of historic proportions in the economy between 10Jan2000 and 10March2000... with a negative Q1 in GDP... that is where you will see the next big market correction... after that in Q2-Q3 comes the huge benefits in productivity from all the Y2K investments, updating and upgrading old crusty inefficient legacy systems with perky new Sun and Oracle equipmt and software dont expect any big typical October selloff this year... the Fed is not gonna risk lack of liquidity with Y2K issues on the horizon... not only do we have the Y2K investments and inventory buildup, but an unprecedented increase in cash in circulation... this buildup is historically enormous, with positive implications for stocks in the near term, and brief horrible implications early in the new year... I am reserving a sideline seat for Jan2000 one beneficiary sector in all the buildup is telecomm... everyone is gonna wanna know if Uncle Charly and Aunt Bea are alive and well after traveling by jet... or if the lights went out in Georgia... or if Dad's retirement 401k (inheritance) is still to be found in Fidelity... and phone calls, emails, etc will be mounting bigtime / jim willie