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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Graham who wrote (19480)	7/7/1999 5:01:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 99985

Hi Robert, Nice hearing from you. This 3-DAY pattern was just something I noticed from my CLASS SIGNALs after watching it for the last 2 years. When I noticed a pattern I took it back a few years more and did a brief statistical study on it. By the way, TUESDAY may have been a DAY-1. There was a significant pullback off the intraday highs especially the NAZ, and it was preceded by a CLASS SELL signal, although my the response to my signal was about 1/2 day late. So, if I am corrected about TUESDAY being DAY 1, there is a good chance that today, at best, should be slightly up and THUR(DAY 3) another strong down day. In light of the strong momentum, Im really not expecting a strong overall selloff, but lets see how this 3-DAY pattern performs. Im more inclined to say it wont work anywhere as well as the last one. seeya

To: Robert Graham who wrote (19480)	7/7/1999 5:58:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Just updated the INDEX UPDATE at 6:00am seeya

To: Robert Graham who wrote (19480)	7/7/1999 9:30:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Robert; I think the Bulls are even surprised at the strength that this market came back at, and some of it is due to Mo Mo buying to cover the calls they wrote, & part due to short covering, it's got up a head of steam and the Mo Mo can take it on up, but be careful just after July options expire we could have another ball game if those who inherent all this wealth via the calls on the stock want to take profits and then find they don't have buyers. --------------- The market is skewed way above Max pain on the options, which short term can cause even more buying , but when windfall profits do happen on options the only way they can really collect is to sell stock, the week after expiration should be interesting. ( if you start seeing selling into good news or good earnings after the 16th you can forget the bulls for a while ) Right now it looks like Max pain is being turned on it's head and that a lot of the run up is mo mo buying to cover the calls writen. Jim

To: Robert Graham who wrote (19480)	7/19/1999 10:15:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Respond to of 99985

My view has changed a bit since this previous post of mine. Looks like YHOO ended up selling of following EBAY down which is a loss of leadership in the market. And the leadership cannot be as easily replaced like an exchange of a baton between runners in a foot race. Even by the semis as some are expecting. I also have seen accumulation of stocks by institutional money like LU, CSCO, MSFT, and others, many of the generals of the market. This indicated a lack of confidence in the Internet market leadership before the sell off of that subsector. I also have seen a continuing pattern of distribution in the market. The Internets are one example of this. What concerns me is that this distribution comes when I would not expect it to in a healthy market that is in an established uptrend. Now we have good earnings reports that are not lifting their associated stocks or the market. I also have been seeing the market respond to Donald Sew's sell signals which is what I would not expect given the quantities of money htat have been moving into the market earlier. We have seen an inordinate amount of CALL shorting and even examples of PUT buying on some key stocks. The associated stocks like MSFT surprised which caused a good move up. We also have seen the VIX drop and what some call a general complaceny in the market. I think much of this can be attributed to large money. I think actually we may have been seeing a lack of broader speculative participation in the market which I would not expect at this juncture in the market. Perhaps large money has been mostly responsible for moving the market up and not the speculative monies. I think the sell off of the Internet leadership has played a role in this. Comments anyone? Bob Graham