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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (50732)7/6/1999 8:18:00 PM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 86076
 
Market Watch from this week's Barron's
Liquidity Trim Tabs
520 Mendocino Ave., Santa Rosa, Calif. 95401
JUNE 28 ~ Margin debt at all NYSE member firms (which includes almost all margin debt secured by Nasdaq stocks) rose $5.1 billion, or 2.9%, in May to $177.9 billion despite a 2.2% drop in the market cap of all stocks trading in the U.S. and a 33% peak-to-trough decline of Internet stock indexes. We had guessed early in June that May margin debt plunged due to the huge 50% drops of many Internet favorites. Obviously we were wrong. Margin debt as a percent of the Trim Tabs Market Cap rose to 1.20% at the end of May-the highest level since 1987-just 15% below the 1.38% peak at the end of September 1987. Officially, we are now worried about the audacity and lack of fear of individuals in leveraging up their equity holdings to rates not seen since 1987.
There could be two other reasons why margin loans rose in May that have nothing to do with the stock market. One: Individuals are substituting margin debt for more expensive credit cards. Two: Less mortgage refinancing as interest rates rise. Still, the more individuals borrow against stocks means there's more "greed" than "fear" in the market. The end result: a bigger and more explosive downside move-when it happens.

-- CHARLES BIDERMAN



To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (50732)7/6/1999 8:22:00 PM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 86076
 
~~IMHO teh equity P/C ration is more important than the OEX to reflect sentiment. ~~

I agree that the equity put call ratio is important, and you don't see as much hedging or other strategies used with equity options compared to index options.

Everyone on the Systems, Strategies ...thread were shorting this morning and early this afternoon -ng-