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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amsterdam who wrote (2896)	7/6/1999 3:55:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6974

Hey Amsterdam, I don't think the pace of business has slowed in the global 50,000 which is sebl's sweet spot, i think you'll see evidence of this shortly. In fact i think you'll see that acceptance is crossing the chasm. I couldn't disagree with you more vehemently about the "viability" of the middle market for enterprise applications. It is an arena of profitless prosperity. The costs per transaction are extremely high, the service costs are high and the business models don't scale. Notice that ONXS is growing MORE slowly than Clarify or SEBL did at the same stage and has yet to make a nickel? mid market enterprise software is more often than not a rotten rotten rotten business. There are only two ways to make money in that segment; A VAR channel which takes a long time to build and scale up and telesales. BTW, sebl is using telesales for much of its mid market focused efforts. SEBL's forward valuation is expensive, unless there is significant upside to those estimates. I suspect that by the end of this year, 2000 estimates will be radically different. (room for a hedge there, i said different which means much higher or much lower.) TD