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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (3510)	7/7/1999 12:23:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

In my Front Office Gorilla Game, Vantive is by far the smallest holding. Good thing, again and again and again. =========== Santa Clara, California, July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Vantive Corp., a maker of customer-service software, warned that it will report a second-quarter loss and take a restructuring charge, the third time in five quarters it's fallen short of expectations. The company also said President and Chief Operating Officer Phil Dunkelberger will resign as part of a realignment of senior management. His position will be ''phased out,'' Vantive said. Vantive has struggled over the last five quarters amid several management changes, including naming a new chief executive last quarter after the previous one resigned. The company also is trying to strengthen its sales force and development of new Web- based software products. ''We've seen the company almost fall off the face of the map,'' said Jon Ekoniak, an analyst at BancBoston Robertson Stephens, who rates the stock ''long-term attractive.'' ''As the company tries to reposition itself, it's almost gone into hiding.'' Vantive said it expects a loss of 12 cents to 14 cents a share for the quarter ended June 30, including a restructuring charge of 7 cents a share. Analysts had expected the company to earn 4 cents a share, according to First Call Corp. The Santa Clara, California-based company said it will report second-quarter revenue of $47 million to $49 million, an increase of 27 percent over $37.7 million in the second quarter of 1998. Software sales will be about $22 million, the company said. The company also said it will buy back up to $10 million of common stock. Vantive shares today fell 11/32 to 12 13/16 before trading was halted. Final results will be released on July 21 after the close of U.S. trading. ================= My thinking? The company will be able to buy that $10 million in stock on the very cheap. Maybe not at a particularly good value, but definitely cheap. The company keeps putting out the PR that it is newly focused. Meanwhile, there is NO growth in total revenue or licensing revenue since last quarter. And licensing revenue continues to be only half of total revenue. Not good. --Mike Buckley