To: Ironyman who wrote (36771 ) 7/7/1999 9:40:00 AM From: Rarebird Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116790
Good Post to Read ( from Gold Eagle ) if Your Long Gold:From Atahualpa) Jul 06, 19:31 I believe that gold and gold mining stock investing needs an entirely different approach than investing in other fields. First of all, I think that the prime motive for choosing gold or certain mining stocks should be preservation of wealth over time rather than seeking a short-term return. By looking at a simple chart, it is easy to see that gold is in a downtrend, as well as it is easy to see that the DOW is in an uptrend. Very few people actually pick the exact top or the exact bottom of any market. With that in mind, one can safely conclude that when it comes to short-term return seeking, one is safer betting WITH the trend than betting AGAINST the trend. "The Trend is your Friend" would be the motto I would use for momentum investors. From a strictly technical point of view, anyone who has invested heavily in gold or gold stocks from 1996-1998 has been betting WRONG, for he/she has been going against the trend. Certain indicators started showing interesting divergences from the downtrend since the last quarter of 1998 until now. These divergences meant that the time to start accumulating had arrived. START ACCUMULATING, not betting the house once and for all. Even though gold was and is still in a technical downtrend, the technical divergences PLUS the fundamental elements PLUS the propaganda war all are screaming BUY. But that STILL does not mean that gold is going up right now. It will go up, eventually. But I don-t know when. That is why I titled the post the way I did. When one buys gold or gold stock call options, you are limited by the time factor. You may be 100% right in your assesments, but you can still lose it all. When you are long and put out a stop in a downtrend, chances are you WILL get stopped out. Easy as pie. My message: if you want short term returns, get out of this market. Do not play it. It is not for you. Or short the rallys, too. This market is for the people and institutions that have the ability to wait. No one knows for sure when the trends will reverse, but if you are not positioned before the event, then it is too late. I remember reading a phrase around here that said something like it is better to enter a year early than a day late, refering to the gold market. I couldn't agree more. My advice to anyone who will take it: if you want to preserve your wealth, then buy and hold gold and gold stocks. Do not put out stops. And forget the whole thing. Time will take care of everything else. If you want to make decent short-term returns, there are plenty of other markets for you to play with. Please choose any other one. And give me your gold stocks if you dont want them.