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Technology Stocks : IATV-ACTV Digital Convergence Software-HyperTV -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SCOTT HEIMAN who wrote (5411)	7/7/1999 1:39:00 PM
From: Ali Khaman	Respond to of 13157

Scott, this company has nothing but talk so far. Nothing is guarenteed as of today - not even the FOX-IATV rollout. Everyone KNEW the rollout was happening in '95...in '96...in '97...in '98...in '99...in ?? Rollout = revenues SHOW ME THE MONEY!

To: SCOTT HEIMAN who wrote (5411)	7/7/1999 1:52:00 PM
From: Mike Fredericks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13157

Scott: I am perplexed with this preoccupation over the "roll-out date"! Many have built up this single event as the Holy Grail for ACTV. It is a non-event because only the most poorly prepared investor does not KNOW that this product will be introduced sometime in 1999. In 1996, only the most poorly prepared investor didn't know that the company was going to release in 1997. In 1997, ditto 1998. In 1998, ditto 1999. In 1999, well, let's see what they can do. Right now, all IATV has is vaporware. Vaporware doesn't bring in revenues. They have e-school that proves they can do something small-scale with the technology, and they have TVGIA (which for some reason the market doesn't seem to care much about.) Until they roll-out, they can't bring in revenues. Revenues (and profits) support stock value. I think that it is pretty easy to deduce that if they can get TVGIA out the door they should be able to get Fox out the door as well, but I'm not inside the company so I don't know. Investors who have drawn this line in the sand of 9/99 are setting themselves up for a needless disappointment. As were the investors (like myself) who bought in 1996/1997 in hopes of a 1997 launch. Of course, it was easier to be disappointed back then as the stock I bought at $2.00 droped to $1.625 and I lost 15% or so of my money. How many of these "needlessly disappointed" investors will sell the stock if they come up with another excuse for a rollout delay? What will this selling pressure do to the stock price? The official launch date is tied to the number of digital STB's that are installed. The STB makers keep putting out releases about the millions of boxes that they've already shipped, and there was a law proposed that would make it possible for people to buy their own STB's at local stores. The lack of STB's isn't keeping TVGIA from releasing their app - they figure 2 million customers. If that number is not large enough to produce reliable marketing data, the launch date will be postponed. How is this a disaster? You asked, I'll answer. Same stuff I've been spewing recently so you've probably heard it all before. How many customers does WGAT have? Thousands. Why did AT&T go with WINK for their interactive advertising? There are competitors out there and these competitors are winning contracts and (more importantly) realizing revenue from them. The big bad wolf around the corner is MSFT. They have promised a Q200 rollout and AT&T pledged to help them. This is a BAD THING if IATV has not rolled out by then. If IATV can beat MSFT to the punch by 9 months (considering we had a 4-5 year head start it shouldn't be so hard) then we'll have established ourselves as a legit company and MSFT will just have to coexist with us. We'll get our contracts and they'll get theirs. However if we release much later then MSFT may get many of what would have been our clients simply by virtue of name recognition. Is FOX going to switch horses mid race? NO! The FOX contract only runs through 2003. We signed it in either 1996 or 1997. We've wasted the first 1.5+ years of our broadcast rights by not broadcasting a darn thing. I have never seen the terms of the FOX contract. However were I Fox, I would have put a clause in there protecting myself in case IATV couldn't deliver. If IATV isn't ready to go by time X, I would have wanted a way out so I didn't get left behind. Now THIS MAY NOT BE IN THE CONTRACT, it's just a conjecture. I sincerely doubt Fox would go elsewhere, they've invested too much time and money. But if IATV keeps postponing and keeps postponing and keeps postponing... Is any competitor going to be in consumer's homes sooner? NO! False. WGAT is already there, and MSFT will be there if we don't get rolled out soon. ACTV is built into every box that goes out the door. That will not change. What will drive this stock is penetration rates. If they rush to launch the product before reliable data on this can be produced, they could do PERMANANT damage to the stock and the company. JMHO. And if they don't release the software they can do just as permanent damage because people don't like betting on an excuse-maker. Either put up or shut up. Why did Samuels sell all that stock when he knew that in 3 months they would be rolling out and the stock price would easily return to the 20's or higher? One possible answer is that he wanted to get the sale over with now so that when good news came out the sale wouldn't drag the stock downward. Who knows what the real answer is. I will conclude by again saying that I believe that the rollout should come during 3Q, but if it doesn't, we won't be happy. -Mike

To: SCOTT HEIMAN who wrote (5411)	7/7/1999 3:36:00 PM
From: Tom_H_68	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13157

It is my belief that the "waiting on the set top boxes" argument is a crutch, and creates speculation. It leaves a large back-door open for another delay in product roll-out; something that this company desperately needs to reassure investor confidence. Would it not make perfect sense to roll out the product regardless of the quantity of viewers? I believe word-of-mouth advertising by those who "have" would say far more to those who "have-not" than any advertising campaign by any other media. Think about it; why would a limited customer base affect the quality or desirability of a product? It wouldn't - do you think Dell waited to begin producing computers until he had an order for 2M computers? He would not be in business right now if he had. I am long on this company - have been for quite a while, but severe damage has been done as a result of unachieved goals and another undelivered product just may put this stock back in the hole that it came from. We NEED this roll-out...soon. tom