To: pz who wrote (47469 ) 7/7/1999 4:23:00 PM From: Greywolf Respond to of 95453
Rise in oil prices must not create complacency Author By: Abd Al Nabi Salman Al Ayam During the latest oil crisis – whose effects on some Arab oil economies have begun to wane following the gradual rise in oil prices – there were intensive discussions on the need for economic reform. Many oil-producing countries, and especially Gulf countries, have on more than one occasion, raised the issue of tightening belts. They suggested that the private sector should shoulder its responsibilities and consequently should be re-structured on a profit basis. The fears were to a great extent justifiable for it was a global crisis whose consequences no one knew. The recent oil agreement – which was the result of the initiative of several oil exporting states led by Saudi Arabia and Iran – has restored the balance to world oil markets. Although it has positive effects on the short and medium terms, and notwithstanding the optimism it spread in oil circles, it has also created a climate of undesired complacency for the advocates of economic reform. Calls for transparency, reforming the economy, diversifying the sources of income, a growing tendency towards privatisation, opening the markets, and encouraging investment have begun to fade and lose the fervour that raged during the recent crisis. It is not a secret that the oil revenues of the Arab state fell to almost $70 billion at end of 1998 compared to $120 billion in 1997, representing a loss of income to the tune of $50 billion until the end of 1998. Thus the deficits in the general budgets, balance of payments, and current accounts of the oil exporting states was a natural outcome of the fall in their oil revenues resulting in the fall in oil prices and the burden of the obligations resulting from the liberation of Kuwait. That in turn has created a real crisis and played havoc in many of the development policies, programmes and plans that were drawn up for those oil-producing countries or for the countries that depend on the liquidity provided by their oil revenues, to fulfil their domestic and external commitments. Initial indications suggest that the Arab oil exporting states have reacted to the crisis in the same way they had reacted to previous crises. They viewed it as a transient crisis resulting from shortage of liquidity and therefore turned to local sources of lending, such as banks and financial institutions, in order to offset the deficit in their balances of payment and to deflect any embarrassment and confusion resulting from the postponement or cancellation of some vital projects, despite the dire consequences that can result from such an approach. These consequences include, for instance, the reduction of the role of the private sector in participating in the development process, thus clearly contradicting that sector's calls for privatisation and opening the markets to local and foreign capital. Dealing with the consequences of the recent oil crisis in the same prevalent traditional manner will not be of much use, but is likely to defer any desired action to bring about economic reform, thus greatly obstructing the advance of the development process. It is true that most forecasts indicate that oil prices will tend to rise as of next winter. Experts predict an increase in the demand for oil over the coming two decades as a direct result of the beginning of a global economic recovery, and especially the return of the Asian tigers, the decline in the world storage of oil, and pressing market needs in light of the absence of a suitable alternative to oil for the present time at any rate. However, all these factors should not mean a complacent reliance on oil revenues while ignoring the expansion and diversification of the sources of income, or merely resorting to futile talk on diversification and the creation of alternatives. Sustainable development requires intensive and indefatigable efforts and serious and unwavering economic and industrial strategies to pursue a policy of economic reform. That means finding required solutions to outstanding problems such as unemployment rates, inflation, rates of exchange, development of money markets, increasing incomes, replacing expatriate labour with national labour, and enacting urgent and well-studied legislation for the economy and investments that are compatible with changing and new concepts in order to meet the requirements of the present and future stages.