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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lutz Moeller who wrote (2916)	7/7/1999 2:37:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6974

They are pretty comparable right now. I over did it on some clarify covered calls and am buying them back in. Generally, I prefer to own the dominant provider in any given segment. SEBl is clearly in that position. They are executing well and business is booming. I do not see any of the evidence of market maturity that Amsterdam is claiming. Yes, they push EXTREMELY hard, but amsterdam could have made that exact post a year ago and it would have been equally accurate. (I'd bet his views and mine are more similar than they appear, it's just nice to get some discussion going on SI again. Shege, where are you?) SEBL has an advantage over Clarify because it is larger and more visible. The larger market cap and higher liquidity mean that it can be held by a much broader range of institutions. If an institution wants to own the space, SEBL would be a first choice. However, many people on the street dislike Tom and are nervous about Howard's background. (been there done that enough on this thread) I own it, and still stand by my "won't be skidmarks when they crash" comment of about a year ago. I hear no evidence of wheel squealing yet and feel that there is an increasing sense that a complete front office infrastructure is a key component for e-commerce. I think the street misses a few things on the Clarify vs - SEBL battle. Front office has become one business, but sebl is still largely sfa driven and clarify more service and support driven. That's changing and the companies may be on more of an equal footing going forward. There are four reasons why I'm comfortable owning Clarify despite it's position as the number 2 player in the segment: 1) superior management team. I think the team put together by Tony since his arrival is one of the best i am aware of. They strike an excellent balance of go get them enthusiasm and high integrity. 2) They have room for upside in their numbers from both revenue growth and operating margin expansion. 3) My customer and integrator contacts keep telling me that the efrontoffice product and vision is extremely compelling and is propelling the company to the next level. 4) They are winning some terrific deals and continue to improve visibility. SEBL is a recent addition, I'm glad I own it because i feel there's so much room for upside in front office, but I'm listening for the screeches. The problem is, there will be people complaining of screeching every quarter since they know how nervous everyone is about the management team. does that help? TD