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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (19578)	7/7/1999 4:01:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, no sooner do I pen my note to you and I see Shobin on TV! He is bearish on the nutz-- sees a HS top. But on the overall markets, he likes em. After this little dip, Carpino says the cycles go up into the middle of the month before any hiccup.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (19578)	7/11/1999 9:17:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 99985

Heinz; My take on the amount of calls out is from the angle of the Sellers of the calls. Some of this call selling was done as a hedge and as the market went up they bought stocks to cover the positions. Once calls come into the money it creates Mo Mo to the upside. If the calls in the money last until after expiration date then the call buyers are going to realize a lot of paper gains. Converting taht to dollars is another story. If most of the sellers simply bought positions to cover the calls they won't be interested in buying the options back but will let the buyers arb out causing a mountain of stock to move. So if the max pain point stays high I'm expecting a lot of stock to be up for sale on the close or just after expiration date this month, "unless August call buying exceeds what we have in July." I think most of the focus is on July, and not August , and the August call OI is what we should now be watching to see if it will replace the July OI. I have not done any real history on this so it's just mostly speculation on my part. Jim