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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: biowa who wrote (6826)	7/7/1999 10:55:00 PM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

Biowa, 1.BLA priced in. Probably but they would hurt from a perceived delay. Fact is they completed the filing when they said they would excpt they did it all at once instead of a rolling filing. 2.AB projection decrease-- Maybe but KT kept his mid 40s year end price target and here is an excerpt from his report discussing the modification.-- REVISED ESTIMATES We have revised our estimates to reflect a somewhat more conservative stance during the launch phase on Bexxar. Our new 2000 Bexxar sales estimate is $105 million ($150 million previously), and our new 2000 loss per share estimate is $1.13 ($0.38 previously). These new numbers reflect increased conservatism with respect to the rate at which new treatment centers can be trained in the first 6-12 months, rather than any perceived change in physician/patient demand. In fact, our perception of the latter only has increased since the VII International Conference on Malignant Lymphoma (see our report dated June 7, 1999), where Bexxar was the subject of intense interest. Accordingly, our estimates for 2001 and beyond remain essentially unchanged, and we continue to believe that U.S. Bexxar sales will approach $300 million in 2002, Bexxar's third year on the market. (snip) 3. Investors have thrown up thier hands on the competitiveness of Rituxin vs Bexxar. Now you are on to something. What an opportunity. V1