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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pallisard who wrote (12908)	7/7/1999 10:18:00 PM
From: Rich Wolf	Respond to of 27311

Pallisard, the conversion would be the lower of $5.85 (as of July 27) or 'the average of the 6 lowest closing bids out of a consecutive 10 day period.' But as I stated, I believe that with the proximity of contracts at this time, Castle Creek will not themselves be shorting; neither do I believe they currently hold a large short position. Rather, it is other shorts who want shareholders to think that CC is the 'bogeyman,' and these other shorts want to spook shareholders into selling ... so that these other shorts can do the buying at the other end to cover. ;-) I believe, and the evidence indicates, that Castle Creek entered the game with Valence in order to make money going long. (They have since passed up ample opportunity to take all their money off the table since then, which they have passed up.) Some shorts saw the floorless trapdoor (put in in case things went poorly), thought it had a chance to get exercised, and have since leveraged themselves quite deeply. Hence the level of histrionics we've seen on the threads as time goes on. The shorts are hoping that something blows up in Valence's face, just like the longs are hoping that the progress by Valence towards contracts is real. As time marches on, the evidence continues to accrue on behalf of the longs. I'm sure the longs are relishing the confidence increasingly exuded by the Valence management, as they execute the endgame of their plan to enter commercial production on a very large scale. The chances are quite high for contracts this summer. If the Alliant POs accumulate enough revenue, we may well see the IDB monies being turned on soon. It is likely that the determination that the $3M offering just made would be sufficient, was based on this factor and the potential for revenue from POs later this summer. The lender reportedly stands ready to provide more at similar pricing, if any of these timetables should slide. There will be strong support for the stock in that area, if not higher. Any shorts foolish enough to be shorting further at these prices will be selling into the waiting arms of these buyers. I think of the numerous remarks made during the conference call regarding Energizer (EPS) as a repackager. How the planned sale of EPS by Eveready has delayed prior plans to package and sell Valence cells to OEMs, how it is now being completed, how EPS was open to the 'Valence branding' of their cells as the premium batteries to be requested by buyers of laptops from such OEMs as IBM, Dell, etc.. EPS stated in early June that the sale would be finalized within two months. We're now at the half-way point. I would expect that EPS will move quickly with Valence once that occurs, so you may be right in anticipating some PR shortly after that.