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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (19630)	7/8/1999 1:20:00 AM
From: Compadre	Respond to of 99985

Vitas: You are right! But one could argue that the 95 cycle did not complete either. The fact is that one could not discern a bottom in 95 until October. Regards, Jaime

To: Vitas who wrote (19630)	7/8/1999 1:33:00 AM
From: Compadre	Respond to of 99985

Vitas: BTW, the Oct 95 bottom came very close to touching the 200 day EMA. The 200 Day EMA was 514, the low of that period was 528. Close enough for horse shoes? Regards, Jaime

To: Vitas who wrote (19630)	7/8/1999 3:34:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

I am concerned that though we all originally thought this pullback would be light, that there really hasn't been much of one at all. As I went through all my charts tonight and then read Haim's scan, I noted how many stocks have high RSI values and stochastic readings in the over bought range. My charts show a pattern that usually pulls back slightly, heads back up double tapping the high range then drops hard. I also noted that there was high volume the last few days on many stocks with relatively small price movement. I am getting the distinct feeling that money is already starting to slip out the back door but I can't really prove it technically as it is more of a feeling from looking at numerous stock charts and noting the movement in them in general. Is anyone else noticing strange price movements. I saw a few intra day charts where there was steady trading flat to up then all of a sudden a drought of buyers just allowed the prices to drop steeply. There also seems to be a lot more small blocks on many of them. None of this is significant in itself but is collectively strange to me. The reason I bring this up is Don's day three should be tomorrow so a strong drop could happen but this pullback has been far from normal as I see it so far. If Some of these stocks don't let off some steam soon, they will be primed to drop at any time and on the slightest shock type news. I have often posted here that drops don't happen when stock indicators are low and strong rallies usually don't happen when they are high. Many of the stock's indicators are still high right now and if we finish the three day scenario and start to head back up strong, one big stock missing or warning could cause a nasty gap down morning. As for blow off tops which is one possibility, it will be tough to do with so many stocks already having such high readings unless it is done on the backs of the few that have dropped recently like WCOM. I have been noticing that the PC stocks that were lagging have started threatening to move again. Lastly, I think there is a growing chance of another sector rotation since the NASDAQ and OEX is approaching my resistance areas while the SPX and DOW have plenty of room to the upside. This is a weak outlook as that is about all the reasoning I have but I feel that money could start leaving the NASDAQ and moving back into some of the older DOW stocks since many of them have been lagging lately. If some of these don't move up soon, then I strongly believe that we are going to have one of the narrowest rallies in history because to be honest, I just don't see the bullishness in the charts that many others see. I had a scan kick out a trade the other day that I ignored and even posted I thought it was wrong since the chart looked like a bull flag so I wasn't going to post the scan which recommended the short. The thing tanked the next 2 days. My scans are still showing more over boughts than over solds and the trading scans are only kicking out short trades right now. I understand that this could be due to us being in a short term down trend but my scans need low indicator values to go long and there aren't many "good" stocks with these characteristics. The only stocks that are down right now are those that have warned or are in litigation. Lastly, the lunar occurance of July 22nd that was posted here correspondes nicely with the Hawkens testimony I read somewhere that is supposed to be the same day. Hmmmmm PS - I think we have to start watching what we say here. After I dogged on DELL for being weak the last couple days, it suddenly jumps up today. I think we are being watched and just because your paranoid doesn't mean their not out to get you!!! To be brief (too late, I know). As I went through the charts, there is a sixth sense goign off that something is wrong but I can't prove it by posting a chart or showing an indicator. The closest I can come is to show that the TRIN chart I have at the MDA site still shows that we should have a rising TRIN which should have a negative affect on the market. I guess I am asking if anyone else sees anything that points to a negative bias reversing what we all pretty much originally saw as an upward trend for the next few weeks. Good Luck, Lee