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Non-Tech : Central Garden & Pet Co. (Nasdaq : CENT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Stempson who wrote (3)	7/8/1999 6:14:00 AM
From: Dale Stempson	Respond to of 73

REF: Hambrecht & Quist (6/8/99) Company: Central Garden & Pet Co. Price: 11.59 Recommendation: Buy Notes: a, b, f Date: 6/8/99 Reducing Q3 Estimates on Lower than Expected Sales We are lowering our Q3 estimates on CENT as a "longer" garden season has not materialized -- leading to the likelihood of a top line miss in the key selling quarter. Additionally, with high expense levels in Q3, we believe EPS may come in significantly below our previous $0.72 target. We now expect revenues to be flat at $504 million with EPS declining 16% to $0.50. Our new FY99 targets are $1.50 billion and $1.33 (were $1.53 billion and $1.55). We believe some of the "news" is in the stock and leave CENT at a BUY based on long term valuation. 1998 A 1999 E 2000 E Q1 EPS $(0.02) $(0.01) $-- Q2 EPS 0.42 0.51 -- Q3 EPS 0.59 0.50 -- Q4 EPS 0.22 0.35 -- FY EPS 1.35 1.33 1.65 FY REVS (M) 1,295 1,500 1,603 CY EPS 1.25 1.35 1.67 CY P/E 9 9 7 FY Ends Sep Current Price $11.59 52-Week Range $11-34 Market Cap(M) $450 Shares Out(M) 32.8 Book Value $10.42 Net Cash/Share $0.10 3-Year EPS Growth 15% CY99 P/E-to-Growth 0.6 Note Legend: (a) Hambrecht & Quist LLC maintains a market in these stocks. (b) Hambrecht & Quist LLC has been an underwriting manager, or co-manager, or has privately placed securities of these companies within the last three years. (f) Options are available on these issues. ______________________________ Regards - Dale

To: Dale Stempson who wrote (3)	7/8/1999 6:35:00 AM
From: Dale Stempson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 73

REF: Prudent Speculator Stock of the Month (7/7/99) Given the dim 52-week trading history, the sun appears to have set on July's Stock of the Month, Central Garden & Pet (CENT - $10.25), the leading national distributor of lawn and garden and pet supply products and a manufacturer of proprietary branded products, including Pennington Seed®, Kaytee®, TFH®, Nylabone®, Zodiac® and Four Paws® pet products, Island® aquariums, Matthews® Four Seasons products and Grant's® ant control products. The stock has barely seen the light of day since Monsanto last year agreed to sell its Solaris lawn and garden business to The Scotts Company, creating major uncertainty as Central's agreement with Solaris making it master agent and master distributor nationwide for sales of Solaris expires on September 30, 1999. Solaris accounted for 28% of revenues in fiscal '98 (ended 9/98), but a far lower percentage of profits as the business generates relatively low margins. While the worst-case scenario of losing Solaris already seems priced into the stock, Central expects to enter into a new Solaris agreement with Scotts effective October 1 as Scotts has been a major supplier to Central and a substantial purchaser of Central's products for years. Earnings estimates are tenuous, pending the outcome of the Solaris renegotiations, but we believe the sun may soon shine on CENT as profits of $1.24 and $1.44 a share are forecast for fiscal '99 and '00, compared to operating earnings of $1.35 in fiscal '98. Central posted earnings of $0.50 a share for the first six months of fiscal '99 versus $0.45 for the same period in fiscal '98. Because it now trades for 6.9 times current earnings, 19% of sales and 51% of book value, we think CENT is quite a bargain. Happily, Central has validated our findings as it announced three weeks ago its third major ($25 million) share repurchase authorization since December, having already bought back six million shares for approximately $78 million. Considering that the company sports an impressive array of customers, including WalMart, Home Depot, Lowes and Scotts, we would buy CENT up to $13.60. Our three-to-five year target price is $27. ______________________________ Thanks to "yukii" on the Yahoo! thread for providing this info (post #1402) 7/7/99. Ref/link: messages.yahoo.com ______________________________ Regards - Dale