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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: High fliers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (686)	7/8/1999 11:57:00 AM
From: Banjo	Respond to of 709

BVSN about to break out for new highs, look for quick move to mid 80's.

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (686)	7/8/1999 12:14:00 PM
From: Mad2	Respond to of 709

Hadn't looked at BVSN prior to your note. Strong company in hot sector, from their last Q comparing 1 3 months 99 to 98. Software licenses One-To-One Enterprise $ 3,827 $ 3,969 One-To-One WebApps 8,956 3,310 Services 3,731 2,012 Maintenance 1,950 788 ------- ------- Total Company $18,464 $10,079 ======= ======= As you can see enterprise apps are flat. But one to one web apps are on fire. Their Q talks about a big joint deal with HP (35.5 mil over 14 quarters that began in 1Q99 with 2.5 mil revenue recognition) They are creating a HP version of their technology. Other partners (read development for var's) mentioned are Cisco, Macromedia and Sema of England. Don't know how Cisco fits unless BVSN is designing a app to measure user's moving through Cisco routers. Emphasis for future is towards var's and intergrators as compared to direct sales. More from the Q The Company's latest commercially available version, Version 4.0, was made available for general release on September 30, 1998 and supports five languages (English, German, Japanese, Chinese, and Korean) and four major client server databases (Oracle, Sybase, Informix, and Microsoft SQL Server C, I sense this company is hot. With a p to E of 175 based on last quarters earnings They are certianly highly valued, yet they are rapidly growing. Not an old lady with weak legs so to speak. The 64,K question is will they experience softening in sales cycle due to 2nd half 99 Y2k priorities. They could, yet I think a case could be made that WEB applications are too strategic to a number of business's to get put on the back burner. Of course you'll have the IT guy's at major corporations wanting to maintain their budgets going into 2000 and 2001. This is the kind of stuff thats an easy sell to the board, CEO and CFO. I like it more for a long than a short, however I'm too damn rational to pay these prices. Put it on the radar screen and should it tank 50% on earnings dissapointment I think it would be a good buy. Best Regards, Mad2