To: Kip518 who wrote (10635 ) 7/9/1999 8:25:00 AM From: Charles A. King Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13091
The pink sheets are paradise in comparison to the alternative of not "operating" at all. The fact that petroleum prices are holding at these high levels indicates that there should be great pressure to do deals to generate cheap diesel and yet nobody is scrambling to close their deals. Why? Because nobody wants to be first to take the plunge and deal with the uncertainties of risking millions of their own money. The fact the plant does not run when it is obvious that it could be making excellent returns is an indication of some possible underlying reason. The condition GRNO is in turns off the enthusiasm entrepreneurs feel about the technology. Here is today's article on petroleum. Friday July 9 5:50 AM ET IEA: OPEC Cuts Turning Glut To Shortfall By William Maclean LONDON (Reuters) - Tough OPEC export limits will drain surplus world oil stockpiles over the next few months and could trigger a big supply shortfall during peak winter demand, the West's energy watchdog warned petroleum markets Friday. In a bullish report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said OPEC restraint, which has already hiked prices to 19-month high would remove 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) from global inventories in the third quarter. ''A stockdraw of that magnitude is unusual,'' the agency said in its Monthly Oil Market Report. The Paris-based agency said an even larger 3.2 million bpd stockdraw would result in the fourth quarter if restraint by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a handful of other producers remained good. But it said such a big draw was unlikely since strengthening markets would tempt producers to maximize revenues by increasing exports, resulting in an appreciable increase in supply. ''The market is certainly tightening,'' said David Knapp, head of the IEA's oil market division. ''The combination of high OPEC compliance, a slowly accelerating Asian recovery and a continued boom in the U.S. economy are underpinning demand and restraining supply.'' ''But there are justified concerns about whether a stockdraw of more than three million bpd is really plausible because we haven't seen one of that size since 1987. It may be that there will be some adjustment in the OPEC quotas.'' OPEC has set itself an $18-$20 a barrel target range for Brent crude which Monday broke above $18 for the first time since December 1997. The cartel has set output limits until end-March 2000 but has a scheduled meeting in late September. Some analysts say OPEC is on course to wipe out surplus inventories of crude and products by the end of September, even before the start of peak northern hemisphere winter demand. ''The quota accord of March this year represents overkill on OPEC's part,'' said a report by Dresdner Kleinwort Benson. ''OPEC should beware of trying to tighten the market too far.'' Algeria's OPEC President Youssef Yousfi and OPEC heavyweight Iran both said this week that the cartel should maintain the cuts for their full one year term. Venezuela's Energy and Mines minister Ali Rodriguez said in April the cartel should increase output when prices and demand rise, just as it agrees cuts when prices fall too low. However, Thursday he said he saw no reason at present to modify the existing oil production accord. The IEA said world oil demand was growing faster than expected with latest data confirming a recovery among Asia-Pacific economies and stronger than expected petroleum consumption in Brazil. In addition, preliminary data for the world's biggest oil consumer, the United States, had proved ''significantly understated,'' the report said. The agency raised its projection for world oil demand this year by 50,000 bpd, on top of previous upward revisions, to 75.1 million bpd or annual growth of 1.1 million bpd. Oil demand in the territories of the former Soviet Union appeared to have bottomed out after a long decline, it said. The agency said adherence by 10 OPEC member countries to pledged supply curbs rose to 91 percent in June from 88 percent in May. The IEA said that initial assessments were that crude output from the 10, excluding Iraq, averaged 23.36 million barrels a day, down 120,00 bpd from May. That put production cutbacks at 3.94 million of OPEC's 4.32 million bpd target. dailynews.yahoo.com