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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J Krnjeu who wrote (25738)	7/8/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Respond to of 74651

<OT>JK, it is my personal opinion that nobody can truly answer your questions. One can perform short-term TA for a reasonable likelyhood of being correct (it is all probabilities anyway), but longer term... you'd have to look at it more from an investor pov, and so look to FA. In that case, the crystal ball is exceptionally murky. The net is evolving so rapidly, that I honestly don't think it is a slam-dunk to say "AOL is MSFT in the early days". This is not KO, where you can have a semi-reasonable discussion of where they'll be in 5 years. So long term - I'll take a pass at your question. Shorter term, I don't see AOL "splitting and running up to 150-170 again". In fact, I kind of see the 150-160 level as a significant hurdle this year already, never mind splits. A lot depends on how this summer rally works - but I am not starry-eyed from what I see of AOLs technical performance recently. I'm sure I'll catch a lot of flak from AOL bulls, but that's my take. Edit: my remarks about AOL price are relevant only to the rest of this year. Morgan

To: J Krnjeu who wrote (25738)	7/8/1999 6:10:00 PM
From: Teflon	Respond to of 74651

AOL is a tough call, JK. I did sell all of my AOL holdings when the story broke regarding AOL's potential decision to start selling PCs without Windows loaded. I remember I had a fairly non-teflonish reaction that day when the story broke. I was and am still pissed about the whole DOJ/AOL conspiracy. In hind sight, I lost out on some significant profits, but it was the principal of the matter... AOL should recover long term, JK, but in the near term they have their issues. YHOO has demonstrated that an ad revenue based business model can be very successful, and AOL is another success story in this arena. AOL's challenge will be broadband access. This is a tougher story to sell for them right now, and this uncertainty is definitely hurting the stock. If your time horizon is long term, AOL is a sure fire winner. Keep your perspective on this horizon, stuff your AOL shares in a drawer and forget about them. "Money make you will", in the words of Yoda! Teflon