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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (41539)	7/8/1999 8:24:00 PM
From: Jack of All Trades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill you still holding those puts?? Or were you able to unload today? I picked a few OEZSC OEX 715 puts at the close. I think we go down in the am then up in the pm. Jeff

To: William H Huebl who wrote (41539)	7/8/1999 9:34:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

A post received from Heinz, Haim, due to technical difficulties i am unable to post anything on SI. here is what i wanted to post earlier (perhaps you could post it on the thread): Haim, re: CNBC, that's what i was trying to point out. they never took the time to take a closer look at the report, they only uttered platitudes. they posed utterly stupid questions when interviewing Koogle, such as the one about whether YHOO was trying to meet whisper estimates. what did they expect him to say to that? the interview was a complete waste of time. regards, hb Haim, when they start running the dogs, it's probably time to take cover...i have a theory that there may be some unsavory event lurking somewhere, which would help to explain the bond rally today - i don't buy the official explanation. consider this: since july of last year, bonds and stocks have decoupled. so why is everybody so sure that a rally in bonds will automatically translate into higher stock prices? euro-denominated bonds are getting crushed as money continues to stampede away from the euro. i repeat that the euro is a currency crisis waiting to happen. it may be that the t-bond market is starting to waver with regards to the inflation scenario. the problems that were promising to deliver a period of worldwide deflation, like overcapacity and weak economies (except the U.S. of course) haven't quite disappeared yet. the world's central banks, in their attempt to 'reflate' everything after last years near stand-still have only reflated the bubble in financial assets imo. of course all this easy money could drive the stock market even higher, but the day of reckoning draws closer. the modern financial system, for all it's sophistication, harbors giant systemic risk in the form of leverage & derivatives. this is the reason for the pussy-footing by the Fed imo - no-one in his right mind can possibly argue that a 1/4 point hike will slow the economy down any. they have probably concluded that pricking the bubble at this stage would be rather dangerous, and are now hoping that the world ex U.S. will recover fast enough to allow them to get more aggressive. i doubt that this plan will work, since further expansion of the bubble only adds to the risk that something terrible will ultimately happen. i know full well that all this doom-and-gloom talk has been heard before and the bulls have always had the last laugh. but i am certainly not a perma-bear and i am prepared to concede that the mania may have some life left. the reason why i continue to post these cautionary comments is that i feel we have gone past the point where a soft landing type of resolution would still have been possible. no matter how ingenious the delaying tactics employed by governments and central banks around the world, the sheer massiveness of the credit, stock market and economic bubble says that it will all end in tears eventually. there's nothing wrong with riding this blow-off on the long side, a lot of money can be made after all. but the risk increases by the day, and i shudder to think of the consequences once it all unravels. regards, hb i can only send short messages via SI, don't know what's wrong. re: manipulation, they can manipulate as much as they like - one day the checkmate from the markets will come. btw, Japan has been co-opted as well,see their massive currency interventions for spurious reasons. dollar bulls according to market vane now at 93%; the game will be up soon. regards, hb