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To: d:oug who wrote (36868)	7/8/1999 11:04:00 PM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116791

<<your take on Greenspan puzzles me, as everyone else on this thread has been exposed to the same public information regarding what he does and says>> I've said from the start, I don't think it's Greenspan, rather another faction with-in the Federal Reserve, but the big impact MUST be coming from outside the Fed. I suspect the treasury which holds the gold in Fort Knox. One will note, there were valid solid rallys in POG during the Bush years WHILE AG was in the drivers seat. I bet: 1) the Holocaust era gold that was rumored setting at the N.Y. Fed. is now sold and reminted 2) a full audit(not just an open it up, "see, there is gold" and quickly reseal it) of Fort Knox would send a great many to prison.

To: d:oug who wrote (36868)	7/9/1999 2:10:00 PM
From: Ron Struthers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116791

<< your take on Greenspan puzzles me, as everyone else on this thread has been exposed to the same public information regarding what he does and says, how is it that you can post such strong and unambiguous interpertations of these events and no others see what you see ?>> Hello Doug, this thread is just a very small corner of the investment world and there probably is similar interpretations to mine out there. My post is just my opinion and I don't really care if it is not a popular one. It is how I see it and a negative view is never popular. Wall street and the main stream press that reports on them would never tout that the FED wants to reign in the markets, they make their money selling stock. <<That which you put forth shows Greenspan's cause for his current decisions, and that which fuels his next possible reactions for the events that the USA and other economies may take. My next question to you is to ask if your study of Greenspan includes the beliefs of this person, or do you just see a person reacting to events, and applying needed medicine or needed change of policy ?>> Yes, I have read a lot about Greenspan and his believes through the years, but I put more weight on what he says and does now. Basically I believe he is saying traditional measurements of economic activity have changed or perhaps in other words, different factors have stronger effects than they once did. Perhaps some of Mr. Greenspan's believes have changed. <<My final question is to ask you if you expected these changes in Greenspan, as in for certain changes in the economy he will do as such, or are you just reporting events as you currently see them, without the "why" behind them ? >> I would say I did not expect these changes, but am not really surprised. He has referenced many times in the past couple years about over valued markets and the damage or fallout that could occur if perceptions or events change. Not sure what you mean by the 'why', but I would answer that a market that becomes way over valued, poses a danger because the main stream believe is that the market can only have a short term correction, so nobody is prepared or invested properly for high risk or a prolonged downturn. In other words there is too much leverage and debt that could compound the problem of a prolonged down turn in equities. A recent survey in California showed 15% of home purchase were using money from stock market gains. The survey is not done on a consistent basis but the next highest result was 4%, I think this was sometime in the 1980s. Key technical employess are quitting their jobs if their company does not go public. They want stock options as part of their salary to be competitive with their friends an peers. These are just a couple signs of a major market peak. I think Greenspan is seeing many of these sign of the times as well Ron

To: d:oug who wrote (36868)	8/13/1999 12:51:00 AM
From: Ron Struthers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116791

<<Ron <<signs of a major market peak>> its outside the scope of your newsletter than deals with metals and other natural resources, but if this USA stock market is a bubble that can be popped by either Greenspan or simply under its own over pressure, can you present any possible tell tale signs that a crash is soon, as in weeks or days ? <<its outside the scope of your newsletter>>>> Doug, sorry for the slow response, with holidays and trying to keep up with regualr e-mail etc have not been on SI much, but my newsletter has regular commentary on US and Cdn equity markets and N American/global economies and also presents a US and Cdn model portfolio. These portfolios are basically set as long term investment portfolios, with suggested weightings: 3% silver bullion 2% gold bullion 10% RSA newsletter resource picks 10% other newsletter, Future Tech Picks 5% speculations, short positions, options etc. The remaining 70% is divided up into stocks, bonds, particular mutual funds and cash. Basically I have suggested a defensive to bearish stance in the past 1 1/2 years. I do not believe much in playing the stock market through blue chips, senior stocks or mutual funds. The market is too tough and too risky under present circumstances. I have suggested using Spyders 'SPY' these follow the S&P 500 index and trade huge volume. Even huge investors can move in and out of these on a daily basis if desired. Spyders have and will beat most portfolios, especially since the market rise has been so narrow. Also there is no load fee or management fees like mutual funds so I believe they are better than equity mutual funds. For the Canadian portfolio, I am using TIPS, 'TIP' these follow the TSE 35 index My yearly outlook in February was for the best time in equities in the 1st half of the year and a rough time in the 2nd half. So far the markets have gone this route. This year we have been in and out of the 'SPY' and 'TIP' a couple times and have been totally out of the equity market for about 1-2 months. Have gone to cash and a short position with the Prudent Bear Fund, and recently about 30% to 35% cash into bonds. <<can you present any possible tell tale signs that a crash is soon, as in weeks or days>> The short answer is 'no'. I am talking a 1 or 2 day drop of 15% to 30% as a crash. Crashes are about imposible to predict because they are always caused by an unforseen event and that is why it surprises the market and the crash happens. However there is many signs that point to an overvalued market, that is prone to a crash or severe sell off. There is also some danger signals currently flashing that could cause a major correction. I could go on a lot about market over valuation, but I think most accept the market is overvalued. Near term, China has lowered interest rates below $US rates to try and get out of deflation and depression. This will put a lot of pressure for China to devalue their currency, a move that could trigger anther round of Asia turmoil South America, Brazil devalued, Columbia is going through the wringer now and Argentina is under pressure, a South/Central America currency problem could trigger a US equity sell off/crash. On July 21st I sent an udate to subscribers on the market and the danger signs flashing. You can few it at my web site for all the details. We also went long with Barrick Call options that have worked out perfectly so far. sentex.net Ron