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Gold/Mining/Energy : KOB.TO - East Lost Hills & GSJB joint venture -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (3414)	7/8/1999 11:03:00 PM
From: grayhairs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15703

Hi Bob, I agree that such knowledge could be very important to a development plan for the pool. But, perhaps the water was not even being "coned", at least not in the conventional sense that we understand that phenomenon. HTP has after all presented some pretty strong data that suggests the water influx may have instead been more akin to a "lateral (albeit near vertical) water encroachment". Until the #1R well is drilled to TD and there are logs which clearly identify an underlying free water zone and no permeability barriers to vertical water migration, one may be erroneous in assuming that the water was being "coned". If the water was "laterally encroaching" the water problem can likely be easily prevented. BTW, that rate (the critical water coning rate) depends upon many parameters the more important ones being the pay thickness, vertical permeability, horizontal permeability, porosity, perforation interval and distance above the free water table in the reservoir, reservoir pressure and the sandface flowing pressure. Obviously, these parameters are ALL presently unknown so it is quite impossible to accurately quantify such a rate. But, for the precious little that it is worth, I'll venture a guess that it'll be a minimum of 30 MMCF/d and more likely in the order of 50 to 75 MMCF/d. But, whether 20 wells or 40 wells will be needed doesn't matter much for the ELH project economics where the reserves will be measured in TCF. An extra 20 wells would after all only cost something in the order of $150-200MM. That's actually almost chump change for this project. Have a pleasant evening. Later, grayhairs