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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob Shilling who wrote (47679)	7/9/1999 1:48:00 PM
From: Tomas	Respond to of 95453

Rob, perhaps Iraq is the missing link, not included in either the OPEC or non-OPEC numbers?

To: Rob Shilling who wrote (47679)	7/9/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

OK Lets add Iraq at 2mbpd = 72 mbpd. And using IEA's (imo conservative) 75 mbpd demand number you still get a very respectable 3 mbpd. I suspect the demand numbers in the 4th qtr will be closer to your 77 yielding 5 mbpd worlwide draw. Not bad. This is why I believe any selloff here is probably THE gift Horse buying opp of the next 5 years for this sector.

To: Rob Shilling who wrote (47679)	7/9/1999 3:30:00 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Rob Lots of conflicting signals today. Oil sells off and looks weak and then comes back strongly. GOM rig counts from BHI (rigs actually working)(92, minus 5) weak while the ODS count (rigs under contract) much better at 120, plus 1. Thats the highest difference I have seen between the two counts at 28. My assumption is that these are rigs that have finished prior contracts or were idle. They have new contracts but are not yet working. That's a positive spin. Can anyone think of a negative spin? Our favorite doggie has said that the ODS count is the industry standard since it is considered a better gauge of industry activity. EIA lowered world demand slightly in its latest report issued around Tues while IEA raised world demand slightly in its oil market report issued today. The odd thing is that the international stats for EIA comes from (where else?) IEA. When we talk about world S/D, we need to remember that the annual numbers issued by EIA/IEA are quarterly numbers averaged for the full year. Kind of goofy since we are talking about 2 qtrs of actual and two qtrs of projections. The EIA lowered its supply shortfall for this qtr to 200K BD (73.6/73.8). They project 4Q 1999 and 1Q 2000 shortfalls at 2.2M BD each. I would not expect a 5M BD shortfall in 4Q. The market would respond to that. The higher demand during northern hemisphere winters is usually accompanied by higher supply. John