To: Annette who wrote (20119 ) 7/10/1999 9:48:00 AM From: William G. Murray Respond to of 27722
Amended 10-K is a non-event. Just a few more "crumbs" tossed to the investors, or could we interpret it as a little bit more? It appears the revision to be so minor that NAVR would normally not bother to post it (or it would have appeared back in 1998) unless the SEC required it be referenced in the final S-1a. This would then indicate the SEC is moving quickly (less than a week) to review a 10-K for compliance. It would also indicate NAVR's attempt to move quickly to comply with SEC requests. (It may also indicate management's inability to work with the SEC in the recent past or this information would have appeared last week in the original 10-K.) If NAVR decided to not proceed with the IPO, they would not have bothered. Therefore (IMHO), this little bit of information "telegraphs" to the market that the final S-1a is imminent. The roadshow will begin once Paulson is ready to participate (beginning in a week or so?), and the IPO may be out by the end of the month. For the next week (again IMHO), the strength of the recent internet music IPOs combined with the SEC's attempt to get "all" pertinent information out, NAVR's stock price will rally into a slightly better price than Friday's close. If the internet frenzy kicks in, we may see 13+ by mid-week. With any news, this will be taken out. Overall market conditions would only help the price. The IPO is nearing and the MM's and most daytraders will be taking positions to hold for the IPO (and not a minute longer). Increased volatility and increasing volume will be seen as the more experienced daytraders continue to play the stock for all its worth. Despite the many warnings from our friends that are currently short, the story that got me invested in this stock has not changed in the past 6 months. I agree that Paulson's timing could be better (like last April?), but the fundamentals of the parent have improved (elimination of debt and announcements of many new alliances within its market) and the IPO market for music related issues appears nothing short of fantastic. There is still significant potential for stock appreciation within the next several weeks. As a side note, I've learned the following : (1) Past performance by management is far more significant than current promises for the future. My future investment decisions will be more heavily weighted toward issues that have proven management teams that share information with shareholders. (2) My concept of time ("we will announce a new software deal within a couple of days") is drastically different than that of management. (3) Secondary stocks are for trading, not investing. Future investment dollars will be spent on the INTCs and GEs of the world, not the NAVRs. Hope everyone has a nice weekend. Looking forward to a good week in the market. B.M.