To: wpckr who wrote (1845 ) 7/10/1999 2:10:00 AM From: DoubleOddBuck Respond to of 2513
wpckr, There is enough Natural Gas right here in North America to get a good start. Eventually a way to produce Hydrogen must come along. Your concern about economic disruptions is warranted. But, These oil rich countries are diversifing, slowly, although oil is still the major percentage of their economies. I was in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and UAE in the last year. The major push on right now in Saudi is Natural Gas. The theory is convert the in-country utilities to Gas, thereby freeing up oil for export. When that is done exporting surplus natural gas to Asia and Europe is just a matter of building more pipelines. The Oil will not forever, and if these countries don't realize that and get their economies diversified I don't think that is our problem. Lets face it, even if large scale fuel cell use was started now, it would be many decades before it was the prime electrical generation method in the world. Major problem is shipping Natural Gas, your right. Tough to get a pipeline built to North America. But Large gas transmission lines ( NPS 48 - 60 ) are being built over there. Maybe you seen those ships that look like oil tankers, except have round vessels on them. Most people think they are pressure vessels but in fact the gas gets super cooled to turn it into a liquid, NGL ( Natural Gas Liquid ). West Coast Energy in BC had plans a few years ago to Build a NGL plant on the Northern BC coast around Prince Rupert to ship NGL to Asia. Not sure what that status is but I'll check into it. I work pipeline construction when I am not pretending I know what I am doing in the stock market <grin> I think lorens was right with the 50 year statement before it becomes a concern. Minimum. New Gas can be brought on stream fairly quick. Between US and Canada more Natural Gas around then we know what to do with. Many wells shut in waiting for demand to catch up with supply. Until recently Oil wells that produced natural gas was just burning the gas off. Not worth the effort installing gas-oil seperators and running a second pipeline. Only thing that changed that was enviromental regulations. The Earth is going to be here for a long time, hopefully, if we humans don't self destruct first which seems quite possible. I don't think any argument can be made against developing fuel cells on the basis of "What will happpen in the Middle East if oil consumption is slashed". A Bedouin in Saudi told me " My Grand fathers rode camels, so will my grand children". What Allah didn't bless them with above the ground, was made up for below the ground. Its for them to make the best use of it for generations to come. Many smart people in that part of the world, they will survive. New ways will be found. I don't know how I ended up at this link today, I think I was looking for info on Dome houses, but I happened across a site with a population clock. World population increasing 3 a second.metalab.unc.edu 6 Billion will be reached in August of this year. 2037 ( as high as the computation goes) Estimate is 10.4 Billion in that model, but census.gov says it will be 9.2 in 2050. In any event, World Population will almost double if I live to 90. I am rambling now, what I am getting at. oh yeah, are we going to double Electrical generation in the next 50 years with Fossil Fuels ? I sure as hell hope not. As living standards increase over in developing parts of the world I suspect the increase in electrical demand will be quadruple the population growth rate. Thats alot of Megawatts. Anyway you slice it Natural Gas / Hydrogen fuel cells ( or combination there of ) is a growth sector. If imagine if a person bought 1000 shares in every company with a dream of a fuel cell and sat on it 20 years one or two of them will hit a home run.