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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Martin Atogho who wrote (3631)	7/10/1999 5:59:00 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Martin: >>>>> Ericsson estimates there will be 16 million wireless handsets sporting CDMA technology in 2001. << You seem to be agreeing with part of my concern. 16 million customers is nothing<<<< I read somewhere that it took 100 yrs. to make and distribute 1 billion telephones worldwide; it is estimated it will take 10 yrs at current growth to make and distribute 1 billion cellphones.. Stan

To: Martin Atogho who wrote (3631)	7/10/1999 8:25:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Martin, A considerable market [for Qualcomm], to be sure, but not on the same scale as msft, csco, and intc. Do we agree on that? No, I disagree. I can't attribute dollar signs to the size of the market because it will grow exponentially in ways I can't even begin to imagine right now. Qualcomm's market will be much larger than the handset market. Their market will be every handheld computing and/or telephony device in the world, not to mention every desk-top computer, especially every one that is in a home. Handheld computing hasn't even crossed the chasm, much less enterred the bowling alley or the tornado. (There I go again with my gorilla-speak.) The essence of Qualcomm's market is that it is consumer-based. I'm not ignoring that people will be using the technology in business as well as in their personal lives. But the point is that every man, woman and child above the age of 10 on the planet is Qualcomm's market. How do we measure the size of that market? I don't know, but I'm far from ready to concede that it isn't bigger than Cisco's, Intel's, or Softie's market. By the way, all of us had a good time with my study of the first nine years of Cisco's life after it enterred the tornado and what we might expect of Qualcomm's stock price if it performs similarly. At the time, it predicted a stock price of slightly under $20,000 in nine years. Now that we've had a stock split, the target is "only" $10,000. $9,850 to go and counting. :) --Mike Buckley