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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: straight life who wrote (3638)	7/10/1999 11:05:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

When I saw the repeated bad news about Vantive earlier in the week, I thought seriously of eliminating the stock from my Front Office Gorilla Game. One reason is that it constitutes only 5% of the total. At this point, if the stock does poorly it won't significantly hurt the results of our game. But it also can't significantly help the results. Thinking more about it, I realized that's really not what this experimental on-line game is about. We're doing our best to track in real time the results of using investment practices to the best of our ability expressed in the book. In the book, the impact a stock might or might not have on the portfolio is not taken into the decision-making process. Instead, the focus is purely on whether or not the company has the potential to become a gorilla. If I had to make a decision today about that, I'd say without hesitation that Vantive can't become a gorilla. Fortunately, I don't have to make that decision today. More important, because the stock's performance has so little impact on the rsults of the game, I can actually take my time in making that decision. With all that in mind, I'd like to give Vantive's latest CEO, Tom Thomas, a chance to rebuild the company. We have already seen the great results that can happen as exemplified by Clarify's turn-around. I'll give Vantive that same chance before deciding absolutely without a doubt that Vantive has no chance of becoming a gorilla. But because of the momentum and success Clarify and Siebel are consistently showing, this will be Vantive's last chance. Hold me accountable that if another CEO soon takes over at Vantive, it gets dumped. Any thoughts? --Mike Buckley

To: straight life who wrote (3638)	7/10/1999 11:09:00 AM
From: ftth	Respond to of 54805

SL, we were discussing the interesting interpretations of incompletely specified cellular statistics over on the Last Mile thread. In the case you mention, the difference is that handset unit sales and subscribers are not the same number. In fact there's even a further distinction between total unit sales and sales to subscribers. I have no idea what the Ericsson number is; maybe it's their own cumulative handset unit sales by 2001. It seems way too low to be total unit sales in 2001, but I suppose it's possible. As for subscribers, your 28 million number for CDMA 800/900 roughly agrees with the figure I have (yours is a little lower), and refers to e/o '99. The move above 100 million for CDMA 800/900 is expected in late 2002, and that projection does include cross migration to/from other air interfaces that exist today. No reputable forcaster would make 3G projections (especially by specific company) at the current time.