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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bernard Elbaum who wrote (25816)	7/10/1999 3:12:00 PM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

BE: There is this thing called an installed base. It feeds on itself. All you have to do is come out with the new products to feed and expand this base. If you want details do some of your own due diligence. See the products that MSFT has in its coffers somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 or so with the flagships being Win2k,Office 2k and all the follow up derivatives of same not to mention that MSN will begin to bear serious fruit. MSFT is moving into the work station arena and on and on. Why shouldn't people buy them they bought crap like DOS. Win 98 is a great product and 2k will be an even greater one. In the meanwhile NT5(Win2k) will dominate the corporate desk top and and products like SQL,BackOffice will only grow stronger in the marketplace. There is no other company like this on the face of the earth. They are growing inn all areas and they are so sound financially that the SEC is telling them to be a little less so. JFD

To: Bernard Elbaum who wrote (25816)	7/11/1999 1:13:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Bernard, Regarding your question about maturation of MSFT's products, etc.. I am not too worried because MSFT management is. It is one of the few companies that is a behomoth but operates like they could go out of business tomorrow. They are paranoid to the core. They have placed bets on lot of new and emerging technologies in different ways and I know like MSFT management that they continue to grow. As per your other question about IBES estimates, I can tell you two things. A) MSFT has grown its EPS at a rate of about 43% over the last 15 years B) IBES estimates have lagged MSFT actuals by about 40%. So the 25% growth they are projecting is actuly correct on a conservative basis. I see MSFT stock price having potential to hit 300 in 2-3 years as someone on this thread has said earlier. But the valuation will be mind boggling. It will be a 1.8 trillion market cap company. Will have about 50B in cash and revenues may be about 45 Billion with earnings of about 20 Billion. Looking at the coming week, lot of day traders seem to be excited about MSFT. Also I see a lot of momentum hunters noticing that MSFT has been under accumulation. One web page has a 98 target for Friday's close. Another has a 100 - 105 target. I think it will open Monday a bit lower (may be) and slowly and steadily rise to that targets that people believe it will hit. Ther is lot of room to go in the short term and in the long term. We could hit 105 to 110 in the shorter term before taking a pause and then climbing again to 120ish by Jan00. johnd