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Technology Stocks : METRICOM - Wireless Data Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tai Jin who wrote (1340)	7/10/1999 2:16:00 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3376

Tai and rrruuff, Enough bickering already. Your perspectives are so different, the whole thing is pointless. I think you're both right. MCOM is likely to go down a ways before it goes up much further. But over the years, it could well go up much, much farther. Though Tai displays some ignorance of MCOM's technology and markets (it's called METRIcom for a reason, Tai: rural markets don't have the subscriber density to justify the cost of building out infrastructure in the boondocks), I think he'll make money in next couple of weeks. His suggestion that rrruff (sorry if I don't get the # of Rs and Fs right) buy at the 60s is a taunt that should be allowed to pass. Maybe next year. For now, rrruff would be best advised to let the shorts and mo players have their fun. When the volume returns to somewhere near normal, then he can behave as an investor and buy, whatever the price. I'd certainly be tempted, even as a long term investor, to unload ~ 1/4 of my position now if I had bought in the tens. Or maybe sell some OTM calls at a distant expiration date. That way I could buy more later at a better price, which would make me an even happier investor. I've been lurking here for some time, and I expect to invest in MCOM in the fall, but have no position now. Anyhow, good luck to all of you. We can all make money here in our own way. Cheers, Tuck

To: Tai Jin who wrote (1340)	7/10/1999 3:24:00 PM
From: Teresa Lo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3376

Technical Trading: Focus on Metricom Inc. (MCOM) At the end of each buying frenzy, after a stock makes a parabolic rise over a short period of time, comes a point where short sellers capitulate and buyers have bought all they possibly can. This is the time a stock is most vulnerable to a serious set back because all the buyers have bought and short sellers, who have been forced to buy back at ever-higher prices, are forced to give up due to mounting losses. Suddenly the fuel that propels higher prices, the buy orders, cease. It is good to know the dynamics of parabolic rises as almost all resolve in the same way, much like someone shouting “Fire!” in a crowded night club. It's best for each trader to make sure that he is always dancing near the exit door while the others put lampshades over their heads at the end of the party. Our NASDAQ trader caught the turn on Metricom yesterday. Let's look at the technicals going into the trading day. A quick look at the daily chart gives the trader a few warning signals. First, the Average Directional Index (ADX) was over 50. We have found that a value between 50 and 60 is where many buying and selling climaxes have been seen across many markets. Second, the volume had been increasing since July 1 when it first broke out from a consolidation; however, on July 8, the day before Metricom “suddenly” turned down, the stock had traded higher but volume contracted markedly. That set the scene for intraday action on July 9. At the open on July 9, MCOM opened on a gap up and shot higher to another intraday all time high on the biggest volume on a five-minute bar in some time. Then, it pulled back to make an inside bar over the next five minutes. When accompanied by extremely high ADX, we have observed that prior to many significant highs, that there will be one time period where there is a burst of volume. It is as if the short sellers finally give up because “they can't take the pain any longer” and the buyers who "“just can't stand it anymore” make their decision to go in. After the climax, there is usually a period of uncertainty as buyers and sellers are in balance and both sides await resolution of the battle. Volume typically contracts during the consolidation, as it did for MCOM. As the price erodes, people look towards the gap below at the day's low and towards the moving average for support. Activity begins anew as new traders enter the picture. Volume begins to pick up. When the day's low is broken, along with the moving average, traders interpret this as a reversal and take appropriate action. Given the set up on the daily chart, MCOM breaks in spectacular fashion over a period of 20 minutes before bouncing up to form a bear flag consolidation. Volume contracts as the consolidation matures, and it goes down again for the day. While MCOM may ultimately go much higher, it is in each trader's best interest to keep abreast of technical factors to better understand the market in order keep risk and money management objectives in line and preserve capital. Charts specific to these comments have been posted to intelligentspeculator.com