To: Mohan Marette who wrote (5071 ) 7/11/1999 9:27:00 AM From: Mohan Marette Respond to of 12475
ANALYSIS-India's Kashmir headache far from over By John Chalmers NEW DELHI, July 11 (Reuters) - Even when the undeclared war in Kashmir has ended, acrimony and wrangling over the Himalayan province looks set to continue, political analysts say.There was triumphalism in the air last week as Indian ground troops recaptured peak after peak in northern Kashmir heights, killing infiltrators or driving them back behind the ceasefire line with arch-foe Pakistan. But as the clash apparently nears its bloody finale, analysts are flagging new and urgent Kashmir challenges that India faces on diplomatic and policy-making fronts. Like it or not, India must accept that alarm bells are sounding in capitals around the world and pressure is mounting on the nuclear-capable rivals to resolve their 52-year-old dispute. Even if Pakistan's claim that its army was not behind the military adventure on the Indian side of Kashmir's Line of Control (LOC) was rejected by Western nations, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif can at least claim he has ''internationalised'' the issue. ''The shrewd Nawaz Sharif may have the last laugh and India may have won a pyrrhic victory,'' The Times of India said on Sunday. Uday Bhaskar of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi said India, which rejects any third-party mediation, must now accept heightened international attention on a potential flashpoint between the world's nuclear newcomers. ''India will have to walk a tightrope between non-mediation and global concern over security,'' he said. Peace talks between the two countries resumed last year, but came to nothing as India insisted that peripheral problems should be tackled before what Pakistan claimed was the ''core issue.'' After the blood-letting of the past two months, the international community will have little patience with arguments that, for instance, trade links are a priority over an issue which has triggered two wars and the latest conflict. India has said it is willing to resume the process of dialogue on Kashmir which was promised by both sides in a landmark summit in the Pakistani city of Lahore last February. But with public animosity towards Pakistan running high, it may find it hard to adopt a conciliatory approach so soon. Perhaps the most pressing problem facing India's policy-makers once the fighting ends on the mountains is the prospect of renewed separatist violence in Jammu and Kashmir state. The chief of police in the Moslem-majority state, where a decade of insurgency has claimed some 25,000 lives, says an estimated 800 militants have crossed over from Pakistan in the past two months alone. Kanti Bajpai, who teaches at Jawaharlal Nehru University's (JNU) School of International Studies, told Reuters that once the advance across Kashmir's LOC has been effectively repulsed, there is a risk that a ''proxy war'' will resume. And, if the dispute is not resolved, there is a longer-term risk that open warfare will break out again. ''No matter how much we improve our intelligence and military systems, there is a chance that we will be confronted with a strategic surprise now and then,'' Bajpai wrote in a commentary. ''It is abundantly clear that...the only real possibility of a long-term solution is the conversion of the LOC into an international boundary.'' But ending ambiguity over the line dividing Kashmir would only ''defang'' Pakistan and leave the militancy problem unresolved. Bajpai said the people of Jammu and Kashmir are tired of militancy, but they are just as tired of New Delhi's economic, political and social policies in their state: he suggested a softening of the border to allow a ''unified social life.'' Amitabh Matto, another JNU professor, wrote in The Times of India last month that the government must initiate a debate on political autonomy in Jammu and Kashmir and ensure better economic, administrative and judicial governance. He said the latest crisis had presented a window of opportunity for India to win another war: ''for the hearts and minds of the Kashmiri people.'' biz.yahoo.com