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To: Robert T. Quasius who wrote (47738)	7/10/1999 10:33:00 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95453

nandotimes.com By DUNCAN SHIELS LONDON, (July 9, 1999 6:56 p.m. EDT nandotimes.com) - Bolstered by news that civil disturbances had caused supply disruptions in Nigeria, oil prices tested 19-month highs on Friday as traders took short cover in a bullish market. London futures for benchmark Brent blend crude closed 28 cents up from Thursday's close at $18.52 a barrel, after touching $18.60 near the close of trade, not far from a 19-month high of $18.64 set on Thursday. "A strong close," said one trader. "The Nigerian problems certainly helped, but generally the market feels it's going to go further up. There have been retracements, but all in all, it's well supported." Shell declared force majeure, a clause relieving it of delivery obligations, on outstanding July loadings at the Bonny and Forcados export terminals in Nigeria. "The development is the result of community disturbances that have disrupted production," Shell said in a statement. No further details were forthcoming, leaving the market guessing as to the seriousness of the unrest. "The market really hasn't given us any more news on the Nigerian situation with Shell, so people are beginning to trade against that," said one trader. "It's potentially quite a few cargoes," said another. Earlier on Friday, Brent slipped to $17.92 after speculators pocketed profits made during the latest leg of a five-month-old rally triggered by OPEC export curbs. But traders and analysts remained in little doubt that with OPEC sticking doggedly to its task, the underlying trend was still upward. "We have seen the market go up so quickly there was bound to be some profit-taking," said broker Nauman Barakat of Prudential in New York. "But overall, we appear to be on track for a tighter market and higher prices in the medium- and long-term." The International Energy Agency, the Paris-based energy think tank, warned on Friday that if OPEC remained on track, it would trigger a winter decline in oil stocks of historic proportions. The IEA projected a draw of 1.6 million barrels a day from global petroleum stockpiles in the third quarter, followed by a draw of 3.2 million bpd in the final three months of the year. "A stock draw of that magnitude is unusual," the IEA said in its Monthly Oil Market Report. "The market is certainly tightening. The combination of high OPEC compliance, a slowly accelerating Asian recovery and a continued boom in the U.S. economy are underpinning demand and restraining supply," said David Knapp, head of the agency's oil market division. "But there are justified concerns about whether a stock draw of more than three million bpd is really plausible because we haven't seen one of that size since 1987. It may be that there will be some adjustment in the OPEC quotas." The adherence by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to output cuts, due to run until end-March 2000, rose to 91 percent in June from 88 percent in May, the IEA said. Some analysts say the group is on course to wipe out surplus inventories of crude and products by the end of September, even before the start of peak northern hemisphere winter demand. "The quota accord of March this year represents overkill on OPEC's part," said a report by Dresdner Kleinwort Benson. "OPEC should beware of trying to tighten the market too far." OPEC President Youssef Yousfi of Algeria and the OPEC governor of OPEC heavyweight Iran both said this week that the cartel should maintain the cuts for their full one-year term, despite rising prices.

To: Robert T. Quasius who wrote (47738)	7/10/1999 10:43:00 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95453

OT Nigeria: nandotimes.com Annan and Obasanjo hold wide-ranging talks By MATTHEW TOSTEVIN ABUJA, (July 10, 1999 3:43 p.m. EDT nandotimes.com) - U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan met Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo on Saturday to discuss Nigeria's role on the war-torn continent as the country rebuilds after years of military rule. "We've had a very frank discussion, going over developments since the new government took office and reviewing the situation in the subcontinent and on the continent of Africa," Annan told a news conference after the meeting. Annan's arrival in Nigeria at the end of a West African tour came amid new signs of hope for Africa -- a peace deal for Sierra Leone, where Nigeria has one-sixth of its army, and the possibility of a ceasefire in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. High on the agenda of the meeting with Obasanjo was Nigeria's costly role as the backbone of the ECOMOG intervention force in Sierra Leone. "We discussed Sierra Leone and the ECOMOG troops, and the heroic work they have done, and we talked about the Democratic Republic of the Congo," Annan said. Nigeria has already said it would begin a phased withdrawal of its troops from ECOMOG following the signing of the peace deal in Sierra Leone. Also discussed was the question of a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council -- a subject close to the heart of Obasanjo, a former military ruler who took office on May 29. Nigeria argues that now that it has ended military rule with a promise to stamp out corruption and restart the crippled economy, and as the most populous country in Africa, it deserves any Security Council seat destined for the continent. "Even on our own continent, if it's one permanent seat we will have to decide who gets it, Nigeria, Egypt or South Africa, so it becomes a very thorny issue," Annan told the news conference. Annan said the question of debt relief for Nigeria had also been raised. While this was more likely, now that reforms were taking place, he said he could make no promises. Annan and Obasanjo leave Nigeria for a summit of the Organization of African Unity in Algiers on Sunday.