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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimbaBear who wrote (19853)	7/11/1999 12:31:00 PM
From: Berney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

TimbaBear, It ain't necessarily so! pulling the money out of the market is really saying "I don't know" If you followed Gersh for any period of time, you would know that he is playing in a retirement account. Likewise, I'm in a predominantly similar position. In this case, a move to cash reflects a limited view of the upside, but a view that there is not enough downside potential to try to "time" a "bear" fund at the close, assuming one is an available option. In any case, shorting is not an option. Thus, we move to cash and wait for the charts to reset for the next move up. BTW having followed Gersh for over a year and a half he rarely, if ever, says "I don't Know". Berney

To: TimbaBear who wrote (19853)	7/11/1999 12:50:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Timba Thanks for the clarification to your question. For better or worse, I'm stuck for the time being working only with a very small set of mutual funds that I can choose between. This is probably best for me because I tend to be bearish in my outlook. As of late, that has not been the way to make money<g>. All of the funds that I can choose between are long stocks only. If I could get into a short fund I would be targeting Tuesday close for my entry into that fund. If I pay you to sell me your stock in the future, that contract is called a "call." If it expires in the money then you will be forced to deliver the stock to me on the specified date. I'll probably wish to cash out quickly to "take profit." The reason being that I prefer to play options rather than stocks. Your batch of stocks are now looking for a new home ... There are more calls in the money right now than puts. The specified date is Friday. And, yes, that would mean that we would be heading lower. Now then .. it is possible that earnings season will prove to be strong enough to overpower this effect. FWIW Gersh

To: TimbaBear who wrote (19853)	7/11/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I was writing you a nice long response to this but then power went dead as all the air conditioners kicked on to fight this 103 day. Being cash doesn't mean "I don't know". It simply means that the reward to risk ratio is not favorable. My stuff shows the indexes could climb but most issues are over bought and many will likely reverse down soon. Regardless, Tuesday will have INTC earnings which will steer the SOXX, AAPL earnings giving hints to PC demand and ASPs. All this at the same time CPI/PPI is being released. These all give the potential for a downturn if the news is bad from any one of them. Also, this has been a sell the news earnings season so far as evidenced by the ones I have watched (note - AA, BGEN, GE, YHOO etc). Now if the news is good, this is options expiration week and the Max Pain point is well below our current market. This should limit the upside reaction to any news and provide for a justification for any bad news. Why would anyone risk starting a new long position here. If the news is good, then there should be time to get in before next week once option expiration is over. Of course this is all JMHO, BWDIK, <G>, <ng>, FWIW etc. Good Luck, Lee

To: TimbaBear who wrote (19853)	7/11/1999 4:08:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Timba Bear: pulling the money out of the market is really saying "I don't know" I have moved my retirement accounts and my larger retail accounts into cash on occasion...and I do that because I choose not to use short funds and in some cases it is not an option. Do you want to go heads up on calling the Market? Now on a softer note...for some folks it depends on what their investment options are...don't you think? Some IRAs and 401Ks don't allow shorting, so if one thinks the Market is going down...would you not agree going to cash would be the right thing to do??? Me thinks you should back off... Regards, LG