To: Now Shes Blonde who wrote (47756 ) 7/11/1999 1:27:00 PM From: Now Shes Blonde Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
Expect Oil Output to Gush By Alan Gaines Link to the article microcap1000.com OIL/ENERGY SECTOR REPORT A Monthly Report, Wednesday, July 07, 1999 Expect Oil Output to Gush By Alan Gaines As surprisingly strong as OPEC's resolve has been late, the cartel will have to raise output in due course, possibly by the end of the fourth quarter of 1999. This will most certainly be the case should Brent trade at the upper end of Saudi Arabia's $18 to $20 range (currently in the mid-high $18 per barrel area). OPEC has never proven adept at fine tuning the crude market in the past, and the present should be no exception. The aforementioned target range is high, relative to marginal non-OPEC development costs of some $10 to $12 per barrel. It is my belief that a "floor" of $18 will not protect OPEC's much cherished market share. Crude inventories cannot be reduced indefinately. It is inevitable that there will be a point in the not so distant future when the agreement will have to be amended, or it will once again fail. During 4Q99, I expect global demand to approximate 77 mmb/d, or some 4 mmb/d more than in 2Q99. Therefore, it has been easier to cut output back on a seasonally adjusted basis (low demand, low prices). Let's see what happens when the resolve of the cartel is tested during the winter heating season. A renowned energy strategist currently with Proton Capital, Alan Gaines is a regular contributor to MC1000. The above statements are editorial from the contributing writer and do not necessarily constitute the opinions of MicroCap1000.com, it's officers, directors, or employees. For more information, please view our Site Disclaimer and terms of use.