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Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond James Norris who wrote (2222)	7/11/1999 3:41:00 PM
From: Joseph Silent	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10027

Raymond....... Surely, you cannot be suggesting that background conditions (which now can't be compared with the previous earnings season(s)) can be ignored in favour of a graphical pattern? There is such a thing as conditional probability. :) Consider, for example, that 60 mil shares which were previously tied up are now loose. They don't all have to be dumped. Average daily vol is 4 to 5 mil. If a small % of this is let loose each day (I have no idea if this will happen) just what is going to help price? Cramer is not going to help, and neither are positive rumors -- they are almost as bad. Look at conditions: confusing news, OLB earnings, PPI, CPI, bond-rates, lock-up share release, options, NITE earnings, NITE sell-off. How the heck does one ignore all these conditions? I'm reluctant to close my eyes to these in favour of a graph. I think TA is fine, as long as conditions are a part of TA. In probabilistic analysis they play a crucial part. Why would one expect them not to be when TA is trying to guide a nondeterministic process? Despite saying this, I'm looking to get in. (Being optimistic?). We'll see how it plays out. I'm not willing to make predictions.