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Gold/Mining/Energy : WillP Speaks on Winspear -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WillP who wrote (152)	7/17/1999 9:36:00 PM
From: Tomato	Respond to of 177

This seems like a good, easily accessible place to post this for future reference: Author: WillP -- Date:1999-07-17 17:45:54 Subject: Here's My Attempt Diavik A-154 (north and south) Blended value: $250 US per tonne Revenue = $250 x 4500 TPD x 350 D = $400 million US. Operating Cost: $40 X 4500 x 350 = $65 million US Selling Cost: $40-million US. Cash Flow: $295-million US Tax & royalties @ 50% with first 50-million free = $115-million. CF = $180-million US Aber's CFPS = 0.4 x 1.5 x $180 / 50,000,000 = $2.16 ******************************************** Snap Lake Revenue: $200 x 2,500 TPD x 350 = $175-million US. Operating cost: $55 x 2,500 x 350 = $48-million US. Selling cost: $17-million. Cash flow before tax: $110-million US. Tax & royalties @ 50% with first 25 million free: $42.5-million. CF after tax: $67.5-million US. Winspear's CFPS = 67.5 x 0.68 x 1.5 / 50 = $1.37 Aber's CFPS = $0.64 *************************************** TOTALS ABER: $2.80 WINSPEAR: $1.40 Winspear's target should be one half of Aber's. Considering they both threaten production in 2002, or earlier...they should rapidly approach that proportion. Aber has the lead, with the comprehensive study approaching finality, feasibility due shortly thereafte...yadda, yadda. If Winspear seriously plans on beating them by a year...they'll be busy catching up over the next year. Also... If Winspear prevails....the proportion becomes: Aber $2.50 Winspear $1.70 Now, thats a quick and dirty analysis, but it's done equally for both. Should serve as a starter. Regards, WillP

To: WillP who wrote (152)	7/17/1999 10:43:00 PM
From: Tomato	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 177

WillP: As long as I'm here on SI, I thought I'd post my question here... Why were your figures on your ESP chart so much different from the $1.37/sh. figure you have now? To-wit: Tonnes US Dollar Value Per Tonne of Ore Per Day 100 140 160 180 200 220 240 500 -$0.07 $0.00 $0.03 $0.06 $0.09 $0.12 $0.15 $0.19 $0.22 $0.25 $0.28 $0.31 $0.38 $0.44 1000 $0.01 $0.14 $0.20 $0.27 $0.33 $0.39 $0.46 $0.52 $0.58 $0.64 $0.71 $0.77 $0.90 $1.02 1500 $0.08 $0.27 $0.36 $0.46 $0.55 $0.65 $0.74 $0.83 $0.93 $1.02 $1.12 $1.21 $1.40 $1.59 2000 $0.15 $0.40 $0.52 $0.65 $0.78 $0.90 $1.03 $1.16 $1.28 $1.41 $1.53 $1.66 $1.91 $2.16 2500 $0.21 $0.53 $0.68 $0.84 $1.00 $1.16 $1.31 $1.47 $1.63 $1.79 $1.95 $2.10 $2.42 $2.73 3000 $0.28 $0.66 $0.85 $1.04 $1.23 $1.41 $1.60 $1.79 $1.98 $2.17 $2.36 $2.55 $2.93 $3.31 Hmmmm, for some reason the transfer to SI hasn't worked right.. Anyway, I have you down for $1 for 2500/tonnes at $200/T. Why the 37% discrepency? Thanks in advance..