To: Jeffrey D who wrote (1972 ) 7/12/1999 8:36:00 AM From: Glenn Petersen Respond to of 3519
As the Reuters story notes, valuing a subscription-free ISP presents some special problems. However, even though the Freeserve offering is to be priced at the lower end of the range, the valuation assigned to the subscribers is not dissimilar to the valuations being assigned to U.S. ISPs. 1.31 billion pounds converts to $2.034 billion. Divide the $2.034 billion by 1.3 MM subscribers and you come up with a valuation of $1,564 per subscriber. Using the first quarter subscriber numbers and Friday's closing prices, the individual subscribers of BIZZ, ELNK, FLAS, GEEK, MSPG, ONEM and PRGY are being valued at $2,476, $1,869, $1,948, $1,919, $2,714, $1,305 and $2,278, respectively. If we apply the same metrics to XSNI, the company's 400,000 subscribers would have a gross valuation of $625.6 MM (400,000 times $1,564). Divide the $625.6 MM by the 34,366,775 XSNI shares that were confirmed with the transfer agent by Jacalyn, and you have a valuation of $18.20 per share. Several caveats. The number of shares outstanding could be wrong. If I am not mistaken, one of Jacalyn's posts quoted Manning as stating that there were options for an additional 20.0 MM shares. Secondly, I would suggest that XSNI's subscriber valuation should reflect a discount from the Freeserve valuation. While XSNI may have been first to market with a free ISP, Dixon's prestige does merit a premium. And, most importantly, a higher valuation for XSNI cannot be justified until we get some hard, verifiable information as to the financial and corporate structure of XSNI. The above is JTHO of myself and my calculator. I would encourage anyone considering an investment in XSNI to review the various postings, both pro and con, on this thread.