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Non-Tech : GRIN (Grand Toys International Inc) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank McVerry who wrote (206)	7/12/1999 7:45:00 AM
From: katmando	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 495

Frank...pls help me get a grip on GRIN: 1. Bottom Line: Are we to expect that GRIN should be trading soon in the $6-12 range? 2. Blast from Past: a. GRIN traded in the $30s about 4 yrs ago; had a reverse 1:5 split in summer 1997; hit bottom of $2 about 9 mons ago. b. Today, GRIN is bouncing off its 50-day mov ave, with volume building nicely. c. Record-setting 1Q99. Looking at equally great results in 2Q99, to be released in 2-3 weeks. d. Pretty solid management that answers e-mail (at least CFO does). e. Given that other toy companies (HAS and ETYS) are getting good writeups (eg summer '99 S&P "The Outlook" that Waterhouse sent last week lists HAS with "Ten Stocks We Like for Cap Gains"), GRIN seems to move in parallel lately with them...which is generally up. 3. I'm thinking GRIN should be both a short-term and long-term play? 4. What do you think? Kat

To: Frank McVerry who wrote (206)	7/19/1999 1:32:00 AM
From: Frank McVerry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 495

2Q earnings guesstimate. Part 3 In the third and final part of this series, I'll consider bad debt expense, foreign exchange adjustment and net earnings before and after taxes. FOREIGN EXCHANGE ADJUSTMENT - Some good news here. We entered the second quarter with the CAN$ at about US66.5c. From there, it gradually climbed in value to a peak of about US69c, then traded in the US68-69c range for about the last month of the quarter, as US interest rates continued to climb. For this reason, I think there will be another small positive contribution from the foreign exchange adjustment, similar to the first quarter, but to be conservative, I will estimate a zero for this. BAD DEBT EXPENSE - This seems to average roughly $35k per quarter. Last quarter, it was $38k, so my estimate is a repeat of this number. NET EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES - simple arithmetic gives: 3.55M - 2.5M - 150k - 38k = 862k So my estimate for net earnings before taxes is $862k. FINAL 2Q EPS GUESSTIMATE - This should be a fairly simple calculation - just subtract the percentage for taxes. Right ? The trouble is, the amount that GRIN sets aside for taxes varies considerably from one quarter to the next. In Q1, the taxes were about 59% of net income before taxes, so I will use this again for Q2. My final net earnings guesstimate is therefore $353k. This corresponds to an eps of 22 cents. FINAL COMMENTS - There is a lot of room for error in this estimate but the basic net sales and gross profits number should be in the ballpark, given the hints from the company news releases. For me, these numbers show that the basic business is humming along on all cylinders. One thing to remember is that GRIN is attempting to grow through their non-toy distribution and US manufacturing acquisition, ARK. These new businesses may require some expenditure at times - just a guess. FWIW, Frank